Simulation based stacking

Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of initialization and stochastic gradients. With a provable asymptotic guarantee, we present a general stacking framework to make use of all available posterior approximations. Our stacking method is able to combine densities, simulation draws, confidence intervals, and moments, and address the overall precision, calibration, coverage, and bias at the same time. We illustrate our method on several benchmark simulations and a challenging cosmological inference task.

Provable convergence guarantees for black-box variational inference

While black-box variational inference is widely used, there is no proof that its stochastic optimization succeeds. We suggest this is due to a theoretical gap in existing stochastic optimization proofs-namely the challenge of gradient estimators with unusual noise bounds, and a composite non-smooth objective. For dense Gaussian variational families, we observe that existing gradient estimators based on reparameterization satisfy a quadratic noise bound and give novel convergence guarantees for proximal and projected stochastic gradient descent using this bound. This provides the first rigorous guarantee that black-box variational inference converges for realistic inference problems.

Discriminative calibration

To check the accuracy of Bayesian computations, it is common to use rank-based simulation-based calibration (SBC). However, SBC has drawbacks: The test statistic is somewhat ad-hoc, interactions are difficult to examine, multiple testing is a challenge, and the resulting p-value is not a divergence metric. We propose to replace the marginal rank test with a flexible classification approach that learns test statistics from data. This measure typically has a higher statistical power than the SBC rank test and returns an interpretable divergence measure of miscalibration, computed from classification accuracy. This approach can be used with different data generating processes to address likelihood-free inference or traditional inference methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational inference. We illustrate an automated implementation using neural networks and statistically-inspired features, and validate the method with numerical and real data experiments.

Sample Average Approximation for Black-Box VI

We present a novel approach for black-box VI that bypasses the difficulties of stochastic gradient ascent, including the task of selecting step-sizes. Our approach involves using a sequence of sample average approximation (SAA) problems. SAA approximates the solution of stochastic optimization problems by transforming them into deterministic ones. We use quasi-Newton methods and line search to solve each deterministic optimization problem and present a heuristic policy to automate hyperparameter selection. Our experiments show that our method simplifies the VI problem and achieves faster performance than existing methods.

U-Statistics for Importance-Weighted Variational Inference

We propose the use of U-statistics to reduce variance for gradient estimation in importance-weighted variational inference. The key observation is that, given a base gradient estimator that requires $m > 1$ samples and a total of $n > m$ samples to be used for estimation, lower variance is achieved by averaging the base estimator on overlapping batches of size $m$ than disjoint batches, as currently done. We use classical U-statistic theory to analyze the variance reduction, and propose novel approximations with theoretical guarantees to ensure computational efficiency. We find empirically that U-statistic variance reduction can lead to modest to significant improvements in inference performance on a range of models, with little computational cost.

A Dual Control Variate for doubly stochastic optimization and black-box variational inference

In this paper, we aim at reducing the variance of doubly stochastic optimization, a type of stochastic optimization algorithm that contains two independent sources of randomness: The subsampling of training data and the Monte Carlo estimation of expectations. Such an optimization regime often has the issue of large gradient variance which would lead to a slow rate of convergence. Therefore we propose Dual Control Variate, a new type of control variate capable of reducing gradient variance from both sources jointly. The dual control variate is built upon approximation-based control variates and incremental gradient methods. We show that on doubly stochastic optimization problems, compared with past variance reduction approaches that take only one source of randomness into account, dual control variate leads to a gradient estimator of significant smaller variance and demonstrates superior performance on real-world applications, like generalized linear models with dropout and black-box variational inference.

Langevin Diffusion Variational Inference

Many methods that build powerful variational distributions based on unadjusted Langevin transitions exist. Most of these were developed using a wide range of different approaches and techniques. Unfortunately, the lack of a unified analysis and derivation makes developing new methods and reasoning about existing ones a challenging task. We address this giving a single analysis that unifies and generalizes these existing techniques. The main idea is to augment the target and variational by numerically simulating the underdamped Langevin diffusion process and its time reversal. The benefits of this approach are twofold: it provides a unified formulation for many existing methods, and it simplifies the development of new ones. In fact, using our formulation we propose a new method that combines the strengths of previously existing algorithms; it uses underdamped Langevin transitions and powerful augmentations parameterized by a score network. Our empirical evaluation shows that our proposed method consistently outperforms relevant baselines in a wide range of tasks.

Variational Inference with Locally Enhanced Bounds for Hierarchical Models

Hierarchical models represent a challenging setting for inference algorithms. MCMC methods struggle to scale to large models with many local variables and observations, and variational inference (VI) may fail to provide accurate approximations due to the use of simple variational families. Some variational methods (e.g. importance weighted VI) integrate Monte Carlo methods to give better accuracy, but these tend to be unsuitable for hierarchical models, as they do not allow for subsampling and their performance tends to degrade for high dimensional models. We propose a new family of variational bounds for hierarchical models, based on the application of tightening methods (e.g. importance weighting) separately for each group of local random variables. We show that our approach naturally allows the use of subsampling to get unbiased gradients, and that it fully leverages the power of methods that build tighter lower bounds by applying them independently in lower dimensional spaces, leading to better results and more accurate posterior approximations than relevant baselines.

Amortized Variational Inference for Simple Hierarchical Models

It is difficult to use subsampling with variational inference in hierarchical models since the number of local latent variables scales with the dataset. Thus, inference in hierarchical models remains a challenge at large scale. It is helpful to use a variational family with structure matching the posterior, but optimization is still slow due to the huge number of local distributions. Instead, this paper suggests an amortized approach where shared parameters simultaneously represent all local distributions. This approach is similarly accurate as using a given joint distribution (e.g., a full-rank Gaussian) but is feasible on datasets that are several orders of magnitude larger. It is also dramatically faster than using a structured variational distribution.

Variational Marginal Particle Filters

Variational inference for state space models (SSMs) is known to be hard in general. Recent works focus on deriving variational objectives for SSMs from unbiased sequential Monte Carlo estimators. We reveal that the marginal particle filter is obtained from sequential Monte Carlo by applying Rao-Blackwellization operations, which sacrifices the trajectory information for reduced variance and differentiability. We propose the variational marginal particle filter (VMPF), which is a differentiable and reparameterizable variational filtering objective for SSMs based on an unbiased estimator. We find that VMPF with biased gradients gives tighter bounds than previous objectives, and the unbiased reparameterization gradients are sometimes beneficial.