ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Accurate ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is critical for grid dispatch and reserve management, yet remains challenging due to the non-stationary, condition-dependent nature of wind generation. Meteorological exogenous variables carry substantial predictive information, but the most informative variable combination varies across sites, operating conditions, and prediction horizons. Existing deep learning approaches either treat exogenous inputs as generic auxiliary channels through uniform mixing or soft gating, or rely on fixed preprocessing steps such as PCA, without exploiting the physical structure of meteorological variables. We propose ECTO (Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator), a unified framework that decomposes exogenous variable modeling into two complementary modules. Physically-Grounded Variable Selection (PGVS) performs hierarchical, group-aware sparse selection over exogenous variables using a domain-informed physical prior and sparsemax activations, producing a compact, condition-adaptive exogenous context. Exogenous-Conditioned Regime Refinement (ECRR) routes the forecast through learned regime experts that apply gain--bias calibration and horizon-specific corrections via a mixture-of-experts paradigm. Experiments on three wind farms spanning different climates, capacities (66--200 MW), and exogenous dimensions (11--13 variables) demonstrate that ECTO achieves the lowest MSE across all sites, with relative improvements over the strongest baseline ranging from 2.2% to 5.2%, widening to 8.6% at the longer prediction horizon ($H=32$). Ablation analysis confirms that each exogenous-related component contributes positively (PGVS +1.84%, ECRR +2.86%), and interpretability analysis reveals that PGVS learns physically meaningful, site-specific variable selection patterns, while ECRR converges to well-separated calibration strategies consistent across sites.

LLM-Powered Ensemble Learning for Paper Source Tracing: A GPU-Free Approach

We participated in the KDD CUP 2024 paper source tracing competition and achieved the 3rd place. This competition tasked participants with identifying the reference sources (i.e., ref-sources, as referred to by the organizers of the competition) of given academic papers. Unlike most teams that addressed this challenge by fine-tuning pre-trained neural language models such as BERT or ChatGLM, our primary approach utilized closed-source large language models (LLMs). With recent advancements in LLM technology, closed-source LLMs have demonstrated the capability to tackle complex reasoning tasks in zero-shot or few-shot scenarios. Consequently, in the absence of GPUs, we employed closed-source LLMs to directly generate predicted reference sources from the provided papers. We further refined these predictions through ensemble learning. Notably, our method was the only one among the award-winning approaches that did not require the use of GPUs for model training. Code available at https://github.com/Cklwanfifa/KDDCUP2024-PST.