MEMTO: Memory-guided Transformer for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection

Detecting anomalies in real-world multivariate time series data is challenging due to complex temporal dependencies and inter-variable correlations. Recently, reconstruction-based deep models have been widely used to solve the problem. However, these methods still suffer from an over-generalization issue and fail to deliver consistently high performance. To address this issue, we propose the MEMTO, a memory-guided Transformer using a reconstruction-based approach. It is designed to incorporate a novel memory module that can learn the degree to which each memory item should be updated in response to the input data. To stabilize the training procedure, we use a two-phase training paradigm which involves using K-means clustering for initializing memory items. Additionally, we introduce a bi-dimensional deviation-based detection criterion that calculates anomaly scores considering both input space and latent space. We evaluate our proposed method on five real-world datasets from diverse domains, and it achieves an average anomaly detection F1-score of 95.74%, significantly outperforming the previous state-of-the-art methods. We also conduct extensive experiments to empirically validate the effectiveness of our proposed model's key components.

Probabilistic Performance-Pattern Decomposition (PPPD): analysis framework and applications to stochastic mechanical systems

Since the early 1900s, numerous research efforts have been devoted to developing quantitative solutions to stochastic mechanical systems. In general, the problem is perceived as solved when a complete or partial probabilistic description on the quantity of interest (QoI) is determined. However, in the presence of complex system behavior, there is a critical need to go beyond mere probabilistic descriptions. In fact, to gain a full understanding of the system, it is crucial to extract physical characterizations from the probabilistic structure of the QoI, especially when the QoI solution is obtained in a data-driven fashion. Motivated by this perspective, the paper proposes a framework to obtain structuralized characterizations on behaviors of stochastic systems. The framework is named Probabilistic Performance-Pattern Decomposition (PPPD). PPPD analysis aims to decompose complex response behaviors, conditional to a prescribed performance state, into meaningful patterns in the space of system responses, and to investigate how the patterns are triggered in the space of basic random variables. To illustrate the application of PPPD, the paper studies three numerical examples: 1) an illustrative example with hypothetical stochastic processes input and output; 2) a stochastic Lorenz system with periodic as well as chaotic behaviors; and 3) a simplified shear-building model subjected to a stochastic ground motion excitation.