Day-ahead regional solar power forecasting with hierarchical temporal convolutional neural networks using historical power generation and weather data

Regional solar power forecasting, which involves predicting the total power generation from all rooftop photovoltaic systems in a region holds significant importance for various stakeholders in the energy sector. However, the vast amount of solar power generation and weather time series from geographically dispersed locations that need to be considered in the forecasting process makes accurate regional forecasting challenging. Therefore, previous work has limited the focus to either forecasting a single time series (i.e., aggregated time series) which is the addition of all solar generation time series in a region, disregarding the location-specific weather effects or forecasting solar generation time series of each PV site (i.e., individual time series) independently using location-specific weather data, resulting in a large number of forecasting models. In this work, we propose two deep-learning-based regional forecasting methods that can effectively leverage both types of time series (aggregated and individual) with weather data in a region. We propose two hierarchical temporal convolutional neural network architectures (HTCNN) and two strategies to adapt HTCNNs for regional solar power forecasting. At first, we explore generating a regional forecast using a single HTCNN. Next, we divide the region into multiple sub-regions based on weather information and train separate HTCNNs for each sub-region; the forecasts of each sub-region are then added to generate a regional forecast. The proposed work is evaluated using a large dataset collected over a year from 101 locations across Western Australia to provide a day ahead forecast. We compare our approaches with well-known alternative methods and show that the sub-region HTCNN requires fewer individual networks and achieves a forecast skill score of 40.2% reducing a statistically significant error by 6.5% compared to the best counterpart.

Multi-Resolution, Multi-Horizon Distributed Solar PV Power Forecasting with Forecast Combinations

Distributed, small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are being installed at a rapidly increasing rate. This can cause major impacts on distribution networks and energy markets. As a result, there is a significant need for improved forecasting of the power generation of these systems at different time resolutions and horizons. However, the performance of forecasting models depends on the resolution and horizon. Forecast combinations (ensembles), that combine the forecasts of multiple models into a single forecast may be robust in such cases. Therefore, in this paper, we provide comparisons and insights into the performance of five state-of-the-art forecast models and existing forecast combinations at multiple resolutions and horizons. We propose a forecast combination approach based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) that will enable a forecaster to produce accurate forecasts for the task at hand by weighting the forecasts produced by individual models. Furthermore, we compare the performance of the proposed combination approach with existing forecast combination approaches. A comprehensive evaluation is conducted using a real-world residential PV power data set measured at 25 houses located in three locations in the United States. The results across four different resolutions and four different horizons show that the PSO-based forecast combination approach outperforms the use of any individual forecast model and other forecast combination counterparts, with an average Mean Absolute Scaled Error reduction by 3.81% compared to the best performing individual model. Our approach enables a solar forecaster to produce accurate forecasts for their application regardless of the forecast resolution or horizon.