Application and Validation of Geospatial Foundation Model Data for the Prediction of Health Facility Programmatic Outputs -- A Case Study in Malawi

The reliability of routine health data in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) is often constrained by reporting delays and incomplete coverage, necessitating the exploration of novel data sources and analytics. Geospatial Foundation Models (GeoFMs) offer a promising avenue by synthesizing diverse spatial, temporal, and behavioral data into mathematical embeddings that can be efficiently used for downstream prediction tasks. This study evaluated the predictive performance of three GeoFM embedding sources - Google Population Dynamics Foundation Model (PDFM), Google AlphaEarth (derived from satellite imagery), and mobile phone call detail records (CDR) - for modeling 15 routine health programmatic outputs in Malawi, and compared their utility to traditional geospatial interpolation methods. We used XGBoost models on data from 552 health catchment areas (January 2021-May 2023), assessing performance with R2, and using an 80/20 training and test data split with 5-fold cross-validation used in training. While predictive performance was mixed, the embedding-based approaches improved upon baseline geostatistical methods in 13 of 15 (87%) indicators tested. A Multi-GeoFM model integrating all three embedding sources produced the most robust predictions, achieving average 5-fold cross validated R2 values for indicators like population density (0.63), new HIV cases (0.57), and child vaccinations (0.47) and test set R2 of 0.64, 0.68, and 0.55, respectively. Prediction was poor for prediction targets with low primary data availability, such as TB and malnutrition cases. These results demonstrate that GeoFM embeddings imbue a modest predictive improvement for select health and demographic outcomes in an LMIC context. We conclude that the integration of multiple GeoFM sources is an efficient and valuable tool for supplementing and strengthening constrained routine health information systems.

General Geospatial Inference with a Population Dynamics Foundation Model

Supporting the health and well-being of dynamic populations around the world requires governmental agencies, organizations and researchers to understand and reason over complex relationships between human behavior and local contexts in order to identify high-risk groups and strategically allocate limited resources. Traditional approaches to these classes of problems often entail developing manually curated, task-specific features and models to represent human behavior and the natural and built environment, which can be challenging to adapt to new, or even, related tasks. To address this, we introduce a Population Dynamics Foundation Model (PDFM) that aims to capture the relationships between diverse data modalities and is applicable to a broad range of geospatial tasks. We first construct a geo-indexed dataset for postal codes and counties across the United States, capturing rich aggregated information on human behavior from maps, busyness, and aggregated search trends, and environmental factors such as weather and air quality. We then model this data and the complex relationships between locations using a graph neural network, producing embeddings that can be adapted to a wide range of downstream tasks using relatively simple models. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach by benchmarking it on 27 downstream tasks spanning three distinct domains: health indicators, socioeconomic factors, and environmental measurements. The approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on all 27 geospatial interpolation tasks, and on 25 out of the 27 extrapolation and super-resolution tasks. We combined the PDFM with a state-of-the-art forecasting foundation model, TimesFM, to predict unemployment and poverty, achieving performance that surpasses fully supervised forecasting. The full set of embeddings and sample code are publicly available for researchers.