The Sound of Risk: A Multimodal Physics-Informed Acoustic Model for Forecasting Market Volatility and Enhancing Market Interpretability

Information asymmetry in financial markets, often amplified by strategically crafted corporate narratives, undermines the effectiveness of conventional textual analysis. We propose a novel multimodal framework for financial risk assessment that integrates textual sentiment with paralinguistic cues derived from executive vocal tract dynamics in earnings calls. Central to this framework is the Physics-Informed Acoustic Model (PIAM), which applies nonlinear acoustics to robustly extract emotional signatures from raw teleconference sound subject to distortions such as signal clipping. Both acoustic and textual emotional states are projected onto an interpretable three-dimensional Affective State Label (ASL) space-Tension, Stability, and Arousal. Using a dataset of 1,795 earnings calls (approximately 1,800 hours), we construct features capturing dynamic shifts in executive affect between scripted presentation and spontaneous Q&A exchanges. Our key finding reveals a pronounced divergence in predictive capacity: while multimodal features do not forecast directional stock returns, they explain up to 43.8% of the out-of-sample variance in 30-day realized volatility. Importantly, volatility predictions are strongly driven by emotional dynamics during executive transitions from scripted to spontaneous speech, particularly reduced textual stability and heightened acoustic instability from CFOs, and significant arousal variability from CEOs. An ablation study confirms that our multimodal approach substantially outperforms a financials-only baseline, underscoring the complementary contributions of acoustic and textual modalities. By decoding latent markers of uncertainty from verifiable biometric signals, our methodology provides investors and regulators a powerful tool for enhancing market interpretability and identifying hidden corporate uncertainty.

Boosting SISSO Performance on Small Sample Datasets by Using Random Forests Prescreening for Complex Feature Selection

In materials science, data-driven methods accelerate material discovery and optimization while reducing costs and improving success rates. Symbolic regression is a key to extracting material descriptors from large datasets, in particular the Sure Independence Screening and Sparsifying Operator (SISSO) method. While SISSO needs to store the entire expression space to impose heavy memory demands, it limits the performance in complex problems. To address this issue, we propose a RF-SISSO algorithm by combining Random Forests (RF) with SISSO. In this algorithm, the Random Forest algorithm is used for prescreening, capturing non-linear relationships and improving feature selection, which may enhance the quality of the input data and boost the accuracy and efficiency on regression and classification tasks. For a testing on the SISSO's verification problem for 299 materials, RF-SISSO demonstrates its robust performance and high accuracy. RF-SISSO can maintain the testing accuracy above 0.9 across all four training sample sizes and significantly enhancing regression efficiency, especially in training subsets with smaller sample sizes. For the training subset with 45 samples, the efficiency of RF-SISSO was 265 times higher than that of original SISSO. As collecting large datasets would be both costly and time-consuming in the practical experiments, it is thus believed that RF-SISSO may benefit scientific researches by offering a high predicting accuracy with limited data efficiently.