HydroAgent: Formalizing Forecaster Expertise into Skill-Orchestrated Flood Forecasting Workflows

Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer. Although artificial intelligence methods have advanced flood prediction and model-error correction, most existing studies have not explicitly represented the tacit expert rules, review checkpoints, and workflow constraints that connect model outputs to operational warning decisions. To address this issue, we propose HydroAgent, a skill-orchestrated agent framework that embeds Large Language Models (LLMs) into a model-driven flood forecasting workflow, where each skill encodes explicit rules to bound LLM reasoning. We validated its effectiveness using five state-of-the-art LLMs in the South Yamhill River basin. Our results demonstrate that prior judgment captures observed peak flow and flood volume within 5% tolerance in 10 and 11 out of 14 events, with 5-fold cross-validation over 129 events yielding Pearson correlations of 0.62 and 0.84. Building on a high-baseline scheme library (average KGE 0.890), the guided scheme selection further improves KGE by 0.023-0.154, with simulated peak flow and flood volume falling within the prior judgment ranges for 14 and 13 out of 14 events. All five tested LLMs successfully execute the HydroAgent workflow with comparable judgment accuracy (40%-80%), while showing moderate performance variation and substantial cost differences. HydroAgent does not aim to replace human forecasters; instead, it translates their tacit expertise into an auditable and reproducible workflow, streamlining analytical steps and supporting more informed decision-making. This skill-orchestrated paradigm demonstrates how explicit rule boundaries can guide language model reasoning to complement physically based simulation in next-generation flood forecasting.

Efficient Privacy-Preserving Retrieval Augmented Generation with Distance-Preserving Encryption

RAG has emerged as a key technique for enhancing response quality of LLMs without high computational cost. In traditional architectures, RAG services are provided by a single entity that hosts the dataset within a trusted local environment. However, individuals or small organizations often lack the resources to maintain data storage servers, leading them to rely on outsourced cloud storage. This dependence on untrusted third-party services introduces privacy risks. Embedding-based retrieval mechanisms, commonly used in RAG systems, are vulnerable to privacy leakage such as vector-to-text reconstruction attacks and structural leakage via vector analysis. Several privacy-preserving RAG techniques have been proposed but most existing approaches rely on partially homomorphic encryption, which incurs substantial computational overhead. To address these challenges, we propose an efficient privacy-preserving RAG framework (ppRAG) tailored for untrusted cloud environments that defends against vector-to-text attack, vector analysis, and query analysis. We propose Conditional Approximate Distance-Comparison-Preserving Symmetric Encryption (CAPRISE) that encrypts embeddings while still allowing the cloud to compute similarity between an encrypted query and the encrypted database embeddings. CAPRISE preserves only the relative distance ordering between the encrypted query and each encrypted database embedding, without exposing inter-database distances, thereby enhancing both privacy and efficiency. To mitigate query analysis, we introduce DP by perturbing the query embedding prior to encryption, preventing the cloud from inferring sensitive patterns. Experimental results show that ppRAG achieves efficient processing throughput, high retrieval accuracy, strong privacy guarantees, making it a practical solution for resource-constrained users seeking secure cloud-augmented LLMs.