Efficient Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models via Knowledge Distillation

Quantifying uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for mitigating hallucinations and enabling risk-aware deployment in safety-critical tasks. However, estimating Epistemic Uncertainty(EU) via Deep Ensembles is computationally prohibitive at the scale of modern models. We propose a framework that leverages the small draft models to efficiently estimate token-level EU, bypassing the need for full-scale ensembling. Theoretically grounded in a Bias-Variance Decomposition, our approach approximates EU via Jensen-Shannon divergence among drafts (variance proxy) and KL divergence between the draft mixture and the target (bias proxy). To further ensure accuracy without significant overhead, we introduce Online Stochastic Distillation (OSD) to efficiently approximate target aggregation and the Data-Diverse Drafts (DDD) strategy to enhance draft diversity for better target approximation. Extensive experiments on GSM8K demonstrate that our method reduces the estimation error (RMSE) by up to 37% compared to baselines. Crucially, our approach achieves Hallucination Detection performance competitive with heavy perturbation-based methods like TokUR while incurring negligible inference costs, offering a practical solution for uncertainty-aware LLM deployment.

EpiCaR: Knowing What You Don't Know Matters for Better Reasoning in LLMs

Improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) has largely relied on iterative self-training with model-generated data. While effective at boosting accuracy, existing approaches primarily reinforce successful reasoning paths, incurring a substantial calibration cost: models become overconfident and lose the ability to represent uncertainty. This failure has been characterized as a form of model collapse in alignment, where predictive distributions degenerate toward low-variance point estimates. We address this issue by reframing reasoning training as an epistemic learning problem, in which models must learn not only how to reason, but also when their reasoning should be trusted. We propose epistemically-calibrated reasoning (EpiCaR) as a training objective that jointly optimizes reasoning performance and calibration, and instantiate it within an iterative supervised fine-tuning framework using explicit self-evaluation signals. Experiments on Llama-3 and Qwen-3 families demonstrate that our approach achieves Pareto-superiority over standard baselines in both accuracy and calibration, particularly in models with sufficient reasoning capacity (e.g., 3B+). This framework generalizes effectively to OOD mathematical reasoning (GSM8K) and code generation (MBPP). Ultimately, our approach enables a 3X reduction in inference compute, matching the K=30 performance of STaR with only K=10 samples in capable models.

Garbage Attention in Large Language Models: BOS Sink Heads and Sink-aware Pruning

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to contain significant redundancy, yet a systematic explanation for why certain components, particularly in higher layers, are more redundant has remained elusive. In this work, we identify the BOS sink phenomenon as a key mechanism driving this layer-wise sensitivity. We show that attention heads with high BOS sink scores are strongly associated with functional redundancy: such heads, especially in deeper layers, contribute little to predictive performance and effectively serve as \emph{dumping grounds} for superfluous attention weights. This provides a concrete functional explanation for the structural redundancy reported in prior studies. Leveraging this insight, we introduce a simple pruning strategy that removes high-BOS sink heads. Experiments on Gemma-3, Llama-3.1, and Qwen3 demonstrate that this approach identifies redundant transformer components more reliably than weight- or activation-based criteria, while preserving performance close to dense baselines even under aggressive pruning. Moreover, we find that the behavior of sink heads remains stable across different sequence lengths. Overall, our results suggest that structural properties of attention offer a more intuitive and robust basis for model compression than magnitude-based methods.