Learning Potentials for Dynamic Matching and Application to Heart Transplantation

Each year, thousands of patients in need of heart transplants face life-threatening wait times due to organ scarcity. While allocation policies aim to maximize population-level outcomes, current approaches often fail to account for the dynamic arrival of organs and the composition of waitlisted candidates, thereby hampering efficiency. The United States is transitioning from rigid, rule-based allocation to more flexible data-driven models. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for non-myopic policy optimization in general online matching relying on potentials, a concept originally introduced for kidney exchange. We develop scalable and accurate ways of learning potentials that are higher-dimensional and more expressive than prior approaches. Our approach is a form of self-supervised imitation learning: the potentials are trained to mimic an omniscient algorithm that has perfect foresight. We focus on the application of heart transplant allocation and demonstrate, using real historical data, that our policies significantly outperform prior approaches -- including the current US status quo policy and the proposed continuous distribution framework -- in optimizing for population-level outcomes. Our analysis and methods come at a pivotal moment in US policy, as the current heart transplant allocation system is under review. We propose a scalable and theoretically grounded path toward more effective organ allocation.

Near-Optimal Dynamic Matching via Coarsening with Application to Heart Transplantation

Online matching has been a mainstay in domains such as Internet advertising and organ allocation, but practical algorithms often lack strong theoretical guarantees. We take an important step toward addressing this by developing new online matching algorithms based on a coarsening approach. Although coarsening typically implies a loss of granularity, we show that, to the contrary, aggregating offline nodes into capacitated clusters can yield near-optimal theoretical guarantees. We apply our methodology to heart transplant allocation to develop theoretically grounded policies based on structural properties of historical data. In realistic simulations, our policy closely matches the performance of the omniscient benchmark. Our work bridges the gap between data-driven heuristics and pessimistic theoretical lower bounds, and provides rigorous justification for prior clustering-based approaches in organ allocation.

Position: Machine Learning for Heart Transplant Allocation Policy Optimization Should Account for Incentives

The allocation of scarce donor organs constitutes one of the most consequential algorithmic challenges in healthcare. While the field is rapidly transitioning from rigid, rule-based systems to machine learning and data-driven optimization, we argue that current approaches often overlook a fundamental barrier: incentives. In this position paper, we highlight that organ allocation is not merely a static optimization problem, but rather a complex game involving transplant centers, clinicians, and regulators. Focusing on US adult heart transplant allocation, we identify critical incentive misalignments across the decision-making pipeline, and present data showing that they are having adverse consequences today. Our main position is that the next generation of allocation policies should be incentive aware. We outline a research agenda for the machine learning community, calling for the integration of mechanism design, strategic classification, causal inference, and social choice to ensure robustness, efficiency, and fairness in the face of strategic behavior from the various constituent groups.

Real-Time Instrument Planning and Perception for Novel Measurements of Dynamic Phenomena

Advancements in onboard computing mean remote sensing agents can employ state-of-the-art computer vision and machine learning at the edge. These capabilities can be leveraged to unlock new rare, transient, and pinpoint measurements of dynamic science phenomena. In this paper, we present an automated workflow that synthesizes the detection of these dynamic events in look-ahead satellite imagery with autonomous trajectory planning for a follow-up high-resolution sensor to obtain pinpoint measurements. We apply this workflow to the use case of observing volcanic plumes. We analyze classification approaches including traditional machine learning algorithms and convolutional neural networks. We present several trajectory planning algorithms that track the morphological features of a plume and integrate these algorithms with the classifiers. We show through simulation an order of magnitude increase in the utility return of the high-resolution instrument compared to baselines while maintaining efficient runtimes.

Demonstrating Onboard Inference for Earth Science Applications with Spectral Analysis Algorithms and Deep Learning

In partnership with Ubotica Technologies, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory is demonstrating state-of-the-art data analysis onboard CogniSAT-6/HAMMER (CS-6). CS-6 is a satellite with a visible and near infrared range hyperspectral instrument and neural network acceleration hardware. Performing data analysis at the edge (e.g. onboard) can enable new Earth science measurements and responses. We will demonstrate data analysis and inference onboard CS-6 for numerous applications using deep learning and spectral analysis algorithms.