Democratizing Diplomacy: A Harness for Evaluating Any Large Language Model on Full-Press Diplomacy

We present the first evaluation harness that enables any out-of-the-box, local, Large Language Models (LLMs) to play full-press Diplomacy without fine-tuning or specialized training. Previous work required frontier LLMs, or fine-tuning, due to the high complexity and information density of Diplomacy's game state. Combined with the high variance of matches, these factors made Diplomacy prohibitive for study. In this work, we used data-driven iteration to optimize a textual game state representation such that a 24B model can reliably complete matches without any fine tuning. We develop tooling to facilitate hypothesis testing and statistical analysis, and we present case studies on persuasion, aggressive playstyles, and performance across a range of models. We conduct a variety of experiments across many popular LLMs, finding the larger models perform the best, but the smaller models still play adequately. We also introduce Critical State Analysis: an experimental protocol for rapidly iterating and analyzing key moments in a game at depth. Our harness democratizes the evaluation of strategic reasoning in LLMs by eliminating the need for fine-tuning, and it provides insights into how these capabilities emerge naturally from widely used LLMs. Our code is available in the supplement and will be open sourced.

Distribution of Classification Margins: Are All Data Equal?

Recent theoretical results show that gradient descent on deep neural networks under exponential loss functions locally maximizes classification margin, which is equivalent to minimizing the norm of the weight matrices under margin constraints. This property of the solution however does not fully characterize the generalization performance. We motivate theoretically and show empirically that the area under the curve of the margin distribution on the training set is in fact a good measure of generalization. We then show that, after data separation is achieved, it is possible to dynamically reduce the training set by more than 99% without significant loss of performance. Interestingly, the resulting subset of "high capacity" features is not consistent across different training runs, which is consistent with the theoretical claim that all training points should converge to the same asymptotic margin under SGD and in the presence of both batch normalization and weight decay.