Can LLM-based Financial Investing Strategies Outperform the Market in Long Run?

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been leveraged for asset pricing tasks and stock trading applications, enabling AI agents to generate investment decisions from unstructured financial data. However, most evaluations of LLM timing-based investing strategies are conducted on narrow timeframes and limited stock universes, overstating effectiveness due to survivorship and data-snooping biases. We critically assess their generalizability and robustness by proposing FINSABER, a backtesting framework evaluating timing-based strategies across longer periods and a larger universe of symbols. Systematic backtests over two decades and 100+ symbols reveal that previously reported LLM advantages deteriorate significantly under broader cross-section and over a longer-term evaluation. Our market regime analysis further demonstrates that LLM strategies are overly conservative in bull markets, underperforming passive benchmarks, and overly aggressive in bear markets, incurring heavy losses. These findings highlight the need to develop LLM strategies that are able to prioritise trend detection and regime-aware risk controls over mere scaling of framework complexity.

Human Implicit Preference-Based Policy Fine-tuning for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning in USV Swarm

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has shown promise in solving complex problems involving cooperation and competition among agents, such as an Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) swarm used in search and rescue, surveillance, and vessel protection. However, aligning system behavior with user preferences is challenging due to the difficulty of encoding expert intuition into reward functions. To address the issue, we propose a Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) approach for MARL that resolves credit-assignment challenges through an Agent-Level Feedback system categorizing feedback into intra-agent, inter-agent, and intra-team types. To overcome the challenges of direct human feedback, we employ a Large Language Model (LLM) evaluator to validate our approach using feedback scenarios such as region constraints, collision avoidance, and task allocation. Our method effectively refines USV swarm policies, addressing key challenges in multi-agent systems while maintaining fairness and performance consistency.