Evaluating Language-Model Agents on Realistic Autonomous Tasks

In this report, we explore the ability of language model agents to acquire resources, create copies of themselves, and adapt to novel challenges they encounter in the wild. We refer to this cluster of capabilities as "autonomous replication and adaptation" or ARA. We believe that systems capable of ARA could have wide-reaching and hard-to-anticipate consequences, and that measuring and forecasting ARA may be useful for informing measures around security, monitoring, and alignment. Additionally, once a system is capable of ARA, placing bounds on a system's capabilities may become significantly more difficult. We construct four simple example agents that combine language models with tools that allow them to take actions in the world. We then evaluate these agents on 12 tasks relevant to ARA. We find that these language model agents can only complete the easiest tasks from this list, although they make some progress on the more challenging tasks. Unfortunately, these evaluations are not adequate to rule out the possibility that near-future agents will be capable of ARA. In particular, we do not think that these evaluations provide good assurance that the ``next generation'' of language models (e.g. 100x effective compute scaleup on existing models) will not yield agents capable of ARA, unless intermediate evaluations are performed during pretraining. Relatedly, we expect that fine-tuning of the existing models could produce substantially more competent agents, even if the fine-tuning is not directly targeted at ARA.

Robustness Guarantees for Credal Bayesian Networks via Constraint Relaxation over Probabilistic Circuits

In many domains, worst-case guarantees on the performance (e.g., prediction accuracy) of a decision function subject to distributional shifts and uncertainty about the environment are crucial. In this work we develop a method to quantify the robustness of decision functions with respect to credal Bayesian networks, formal parametric models of the environment where uncertainty is expressed through credal sets on the parameters. In particular, we address the maximum marginal probability (MARmax) problem, that is, determining the greatest probability of an event (such as misclassification) obtainable for parameters in the credal set. We develop a method to faithfully transfer the problem into a constrained optimization problem on a probabilistic circuit. By performing a simple constraint relaxation, we show how to obtain a guaranteed upper bound on MARmax in linear time in the size of the circuit. We further theoretically characterize this constraint relaxation in terms of the original Bayesian network structure, which yields insight into the tightness of the bound. We implement the method and provide experimental evidence that the upper bound is often near tight and demonstrates improved scalability compared to other methods.

Shielding Atari Games with Bounded Prescience

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is applied in safety-critical domains such as robotics and autonomous driving. It achieves superhuman abilities in many tasks, however whether DRL agents can be shown to act safely is an open problem. Atari games are a simple yet challenging exemplar for evaluating the safety of DRL agents and feature a diverse portfolio of game mechanics. The safety of neural agents has been studied before using methods that either require a model of the system dynamics or an abstraction; unfortunately, these are unsuitable to Atari games because their low-level dynamics are complex and hidden inside their emulator. We present the first exact method for analysing and ensuring the safety of DRL agents for Atari games. Our method only requires access to the emulator. First, we give a set of 43 properties that characterise "safe behaviour" for 30 games. Second, we develop a method for exploring all traces induced by an agent and a game and consider a variety of sources of game non-determinism. We observe that the best available DRL agents reliably satisfy only very few properties; several critical properties are violated by all agents. Finally, we propose a countermeasure that combines a bounded explicit-state exploration with shielding. We demonstrate that our method improves the safety of all agents over multiple properties.