StateFlow: Dual-State Recurrent Modeling for Long-Horizon Time Series Forecasting

Long-horizon multivariate time series forecasting (LTSF) remains challenging due to non-stationarity, regime shifts, and error accumulation. The Variability-Aware Recursive Neural Network (VARNN) is designed to track such variability by maintaining a residual-memory state driven by one-step prediction errors. However, its original formulation is limited to one-step sequence regression and does not directly support multi-step forecasting. In this work, we extend VARNN to long-horizon forecasting and introduce StateFlow, a recurrent forecasting framework that uses VARNN as a dual-state recurrent backbone to capture two complementary signals from the lookback sequence: a hidden-state trajectory representing primary temporal dynamics, including trend, seasonality, level changes, and recurring patterns, and a residual-memory trajectory representing structured local prediction deviations, driven from a nonlinear recurrent transformation of errors between one-step base predictions and observed values. A chunk-based decoder separately summarizes these trajectories and maps them to the future horizon for direct multi-step forecasting. We further employ a two-stage optimization strategy that first trains the VARNN encoder through a one-step base prediction objective to optimize the internal representations over the lookback sequence, and then trains a horizon-specific decoder for direct multi-step forecasting. Experiments on standard LTSF benchmarks show that StateFlow achieves competitive performance against strong linear, recurrent, convolutional, and Transformer-based baselines while preserving linear recurrent encoding and a compact model design.

Piecing It All Together: Verifying Multi-Hop Multimodal Claims

Existing claim verification datasets often do not require systems to perform complex reasoning or effectively interpret multimodal evidence. To address this, we introduce a new task: multi-hop multimodal claim verification. This task challenges models to reason over multiple pieces of evidence from diverse sources, including text, images, and tables, and determine whether the combined multimodal evidence supports or refutes a given claim. To study this task, we construct MMCV, a large-scale dataset comprising 16k multi-hop claims paired with multimodal evidence, generated and refined using large language models, with additional input from human feedback. We show that MMCV is challenging even for the latest state-of-the-art multimodal large language models, especially as the number of reasoning hops increases. Additionally, we establish a human performance benchmark on a subset of MMCV. We hope this dataset and its evaluation task will encourage future research in multimodal multi-hop claim verification.