Credal Ensemble Distillation for Uncertainty Quantification

Deep ensembles (DE) have emerged as a powerful approach for quantifying predictive uncertainty and distinguishing its aleatoric and epistemic components, thereby enhancing model robustness and reliability. However, their high computational and memory costs during inference pose significant challenges for wide practical deployment. To overcome this issue, we propose credal ensemble distillation (CED), a novel framework that compresses a DE into a single model, CREDIT, for classification tasks. Instead of a single softmax probability distribution, CREDIT predicts class-wise probability intervals that define a credal set, a convex set of probability distributions, for uncertainty quantification. Empirical results on out-of-distribution detection benchmarks demonstrate that CED achieves superior or comparable uncertainty estimation compared to several existing baselines, while substantially reducing inference overhead compared to DE.

Robust Multimodal Learning Framework For Intake Gesture Detection Using Contactless Radar and Wearable IMU Sensors

Automated food intake gesture detection plays a vital role in dietary monitoring, enabling objective and continuous tracking of eating behaviors to support better health outcomes. Wrist-worn inertial measurement units (IMUs) have been widely used for this task with promising results. More recently, contactless radar sensors have also shown potential. This study explores whether combining wearable and contactless sensing modalities through multimodal learning can further improve detection performance. We also address a major challenge in multimodal learning: reduced robustness when one modality is missing. To this end, we propose a robust multimodal temporal convolutional network with cross-modal attention (MM-TCN-CMA), designed to integrate IMU and radar data, enhance gesture detection, and maintain performance under missing modality conditions. A new dataset comprising 52 meal sessions (3,050 eating gestures and 797 drinking gestures) from 52 participants is developed and made publicly available. Experimental results show that the proposed framework improves the segmental F1-score by 4.3% and 5.2% over unimodal Radar and IMU models, respectively. Under missing modality scenarios, the framework still achieves gains of 1.3% and 2.4% for missing radar and missing IMU inputs. This is the first study to demonstrate a robust multimodal learning framework that effectively fuses IMU and radar data for food intake gesture detection.

Skeleton-Based Intake Gesture Detection With Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks

Overweight and obesity have emerged as widespread societal challenges, frequently linked to unhealthy eating patterns. A promising approach to enhance dietary monitoring in everyday life involves automated detection of food intake gestures. This study introduces a skeleton based approach using a model that combines a dilated spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) with a bidirectional long-short-term memory (BiLSTM) framework, as called ST-GCN-BiLSTM, to detect intake gestures. The skeleton-based method provides key benefits, including environmental robustness, reduced data dependency, and enhanced privacy preservation. Two datasets were employed for model validation. The OREBA dataset, which consists of laboratory-recorded videos, achieved segmental F1-scores of 86.18% and 74.84% for identifying eating and drinking gestures. Additionally, a self-collected dataset using smartphone recordings in more adaptable experimental conditions was evaluated with the model trained on OREBA, yielding F1-scores of 85.40% and 67.80% for detecting eating and drinking gestures. The results not only confirm the feasibility of utilizing skeleton data for intake gesture detection but also highlight the robustness of the proposed approach in cross-dataset validation.

Generalized Decision Focused Learning under Imprecise Uncertainty--Theoretical Study

Decision Focused Learning has emerged as a critical paradigm for integrating machine learning with downstream optimisation. Despite its promise, existing methodologies predominantly rely on probabilistic models and focus narrowly on task objectives, overlooking the nuanced challenges posed by epistemic uncertainty, non-probabilistic modelling approaches, and the integration of uncertainty into optimisation constraints. This paper bridges these gaps by introducing innovative frameworks: (i) a non-probabilistic lens for epistemic uncertainty representation, leveraging intervals (the least informative uncertainty model), Contamination (hybrid model), and probability boxes (the most informative uncertainty model); (ii) methodologies to incorporate uncertainty into constraints, expanding Decision-Focused Learning's utility in constrained environments; (iii) the adoption of Imprecise Decision Theory for ambiguity-rich decision-making contexts; and (iv) strategies for addressing sparse data challenges. Empirical evaluations on benchmark optimisation problems demonstrate the efficacy of these approaches in improving decision quality and robustness and dealing with said gaps.

Credal Wrapper of Model Averaging for Uncertainty Estimation on Out-Of-Distribution Detection

This paper presents an innovative approach, called credal wrapper, to formulating a credal set representation of model averaging for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles, capable of improving uncertainty estimation in classification tasks. Given a finite collection of single distributions derived from BNNs or deep ensembles, the proposed approach extracts an upper and a lower probability bound per class, acknowledging the epistemic uncertainty due to the availability of a limited amount of sampled predictive distributions. Such probability intervals over classes can be mapped on a convex set of probabilities (a 'credal set') from which, in turn, a unique prediction can be obtained using a transformation called 'intersection probability transformation'. In this article, we conduct extensive experiments on multiple out-of-distribution (OOD) detection benchmarks, encompassing various dataset pairs (CIFAR10/100 vs SVHN/Tiny-ImageNet, CIFAR10 vs CIFAR10-C, CIFAR100 vs CIFAR100-C and ImageNet vs ImageNet-O) and using different network architectures (such as VGG16, Res18/50, EfficientNet B2, and ViT Base). Compared to BNN and deep ensemble baselines, the proposed credal representation methodology exhibits superior performance in uncertainty estimation and achieves lower expected calibration error on OOD samples.

CreINNs: Credal-Set Interval Neural Networks for Uncertainty Estimation in Classification Tasks

Uncertainty estimation is increasingly attractive for improving the reliability of neural networks. In this work, we present novel credal-set interval neural networks (CreINNs) designed for classification tasks. CreINNs preserve the traditional interval neural network structure, capturing weight uncertainty through deterministic intervals, while forecasting credal sets using the mathematical framework of probability intervals. Experimental validations on an out-of-distribution detection benchmark (CIFAR10 vs SVHN) showcase that CreINNs outperform epistemic uncertainty estimation when compared to variational Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles (DEs). Furthermore, CreINNs exhibit a notable reduction in computational complexity compared to variational BNNs and demonstrate smaller model sizes than DEs.

An introduction to optimization under uncertainty -- A short survey

Optimization equips engineers and scientists in a variety of fields with the ability to transcribe their problems into a generic formulation and receive optimal solutions with relative ease. Industries ranging from aerospace to robotics continue to benefit from advancements in optimization theory and the associated algorithmic developments. Nowadays, optimization is used in real time on autonomous systems acting in safety critical situations, such as self-driving vehicles. It has become increasingly more important to produce robust solutions by incorporating uncertainty into optimization programs. This paper provides a short survey about the state of the art in optimization under uncertainty. The paper begins with a brief overview of the main classes of optimization without uncertainty. The rest of the paper focuses on the different methods for handling both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Many of the applications discussed in this paper are within the domain of control. The goal of this survey paper is to briefly touch upon the state of the art in a variety of different methods and refer the reader to other literature for more in-depth treatments of the topics discussed here.

Eat-Radar: Continuous Fine-Grained Eating Gesture Detection Using FMCW Radar and 3D Temporal Convolutional Network

Unhealthy dietary habits are considered as the primary cause of multiple chronic diseases such as obesity and diabetes. The automatic food intake monitoring system has the potential to improve the quality of life (QoF) of people with dietary related diseases through dietary assessment. In this work, we propose a novel contact-less radar-based food intake monitoring approach. Specifically, a Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) radar sensor is employed to recognize fine-grained eating and drinking gestures. The fine-grained eating/drinking gesture contains a series of movement from raising the hand to the mouth until putting away the hand from the mouth. A 3D temporal convolutional network (3D-TCN) is developed to detect and segment eating and drinking gestures in meal sessions by processing the Range-Doppler Cube (RD Cube). Unlike previous radar-based research, this work collects data in continuous meal sessions. We create a public dataset that contains 48 meal sessions (3121 eating gestures and 608 drinking gestures) from 48 participants with a total duration of 783 minutes. Four eating styles (fork & knife, chopsticks, spoon, hand) are included in this dataset. To validate the performance of the proposed approach, 8-fold cross validation method is applied. Experimental results show that our proposed 3D-TCN outperforms the model that combines a convolutional neural network and a long-short-term-memory network (CNN-LSTM), and also the CNN-Bidirectional LSTM model (CNN-BiLSTM) in eating and drinking gesture detection. The 3D-TCN model achieves a segmental F1-score of 0.887 and 0.844 for eating and drinking gestures, respectively. The results of the proposed approach indicate the feasibility of using radar for fine-grained eating and drinking gesture detection and segmentation in meal sessions.