Large-Scale 3D Ground-Motion Synthesis with Physics-Inspired Latent Operator Flow Matching

Earthquake hazard analysis and design of spatially distributed infrastructure, such as power grids and energy pipeline networks, require scenario-specific ground-motion time histories with realistic frequency content and spatiotemporal coherence. However, producing the large ensembles needed for uncertainty quantification with physics-based simulations is computationally intensive and impractical for engineering workflows. To address this challenge, we introduce Ground-Motion Flow (GMFlow), a physics-inspired latent operator flow matching framework that generates realistic, large-scale regional ground-motion time-histories conditioned on physical parameters. Validated on simulated earthquake scenarios in the San Francisco Bay Area, GMFlow generates spatially coherent ground motion across more than 9 million grid points in seconds, achieving a 10,000-fold speedup over the simulation workflow, which opens a path toward rapid and uncertainty-aware hazard assessment for distributed infrastructure. More broadly, GMFlow advances mesh-agnostic functional generative modeling and could potentially be extended to the synthesis of large-scale spatiotemporal physical fields in diverse scientific domains.

Broadband Ground Motion Synthesis via Generative Adversarial Neural Operators: Development and Validation

We present a data-driven model for ground-motion synthesis using a Generative Adversarial Neural Operator (GANO) that combines recent advancements in machine learning and open access strong motion data sets to generate three-component acceleration time histories conditioned on moment magnitude ($M$), rupture distance ($R_{rup}$), time-average shear-wave velocity at the top $30m$ ($V_{S30}$), and tectonic environment or style of faulting. We use Neural Operators, a resolution invariant architecture that guarantees that the model training is independent of the data sampling frequency. We first present the conditional ground-motion synthesis algorithm (referred to heretofore as cGM-GANO) and discuss its advantages compared to previous work. Next, we verify the cGM-GANO framework using simulated ground motions generated with the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Broadband Platform (BBP). We lastly train cGM-GANO on a KiK-net dataset from Japan, showing that the framework can recover the magnitude, distance, and $V_{S30}$ scaling of Fourier amplitude and pseudo-spectral accelerations. We evaluate cGM-GANO through residual analysis with the empirical dataset as well as by comparison with conventional Ground Motion Models (GMMs) for selected ground motion scenarios. Results show that cGM-GANO produces consistent median scaling with the GMMs for the corresponding tectonic environments. The largest misfit is observed at short distances due to the scarcity of training data. With the exception of short distances, the aleatory variability of the response spectral ordinates is also well captured, especially for subduction events due to the adequacy of training data. Applications of the presented framework include generation of risk-targeted ground motions for site-specific engineering applications.