Solar Wind Speed Estimate with Machine Learning Ensemble Models for LISA

In this work we study the potentialities of machine learning models in reconstructing the solar wind speed observations gathered in the first Lagrangian point by the ACE satellite in 2016--2017 using as input data galactic cosmic-ray flux variations measured with particle detectors hosted onboard the LISA Pathfinder mission also orbiting around L1 during the same years. We show that ensemble models composed of heterogeneous weak regressors are able to outperform weak regressors in terms of predictive accuracy. Machine learning and other powerful predictive algorithms open a window on the possibility of substituting dedicated instrumentation with software models acting as surrogates for diagnostics of space missions such as LISA and space weather science.

Evaluation Metrics for Symbolic Knowledge Extracted from Machine Learning Black Boxes: A Discussion Paper

As opaque decision systems are being increasingly adopted in almost any application field, issues about their lack of transparency and human readability are a concrete concern for end-users. Amongst existing proposals to associate human-interpretable knowledge with accurate predictions provided by opaque models, there are rule extraction techniques, capable of extracting symbolic knowledge out of an opaque model. However, how to assess the level of readability of the extracted knowledge quantitatively is still an open issue. Finding such a metric would be the key, for instance, to enable automatic comparison between a set of different knowledge representations, paving the way for the development of parameter autotuning algorithms for knowledge extractors. In this paper we discuss the need for such a metric as well as the criticalities of readability assessment and evaluation, taking into account the most common knowledge representations while highlighting the most puzzling issues.

Clustering-Based Approaches for Symbolic Knowledge Extraction

Opaque models belonging to the machine learning world are ever more exploited in the most different application areas. These models, acting as black boxes (BB) from the human perspective, cannot be entirely trusted if the application is critical unless there exists a method to extract symbolic and human-readable knowledge out of them. In this paper we analyse a recurrent design adopted by symbolic knowledge extractors for BB regressors - that is, the creation of rules associated with hypercubic input space regions. We argue that this kind of partitioning may lead to suboptimal solutions when the data set at hand is high-dimensional or does not satisfy symmetric constraints. We then propose a (deep) clustering-based approach to be performed before symbolic knowledge extraction to achieve better performance with data sets of any kind.

Symbolic Knowledge Extraction from Opaque Predictors Applied to Cosmic-Ray Data Gathered with LISA Pathfinder

Machine learning models are nowadays ubiquitous in space missions, performing a wide variety of tasks ranging from the prediction of multivariate time series through the detection of specific patterns in the input data. Adopted models are usually deep neural networks or other complex machine learning algorithms providing predictions that are opaque, i.e., human users are not allowed to understand the rationale behind the provided predictions. Several techniques exist in the literature to combine the impressive predictive performance of opaque machine learning models with human-intelligible prediction explanations, as for instance the application of symbolic knowledge extraction procedures. In this paper are reported the results of different knowledge extractors applied to an ensemble predictor capable of reproducing cosmic-ray data gathered on board the LISA Pathfinder space mission. A discussion about the readability/fidelity trade-off of the extracted knowledge is also presented.