Diagnosing and Mitigating Retrieval Bottlenecks in LLM-Based Cold-Start Recommendation

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as rerankers in recommender systems, with the expectation that semantic understanding will help in cold-start and long-tail regimes. We test this assumption with a five-domain benchmark that explicitly separates reranking quality from retrieval coverage. In a positive-controlled regime where the gold item is guaranteed present, calibrated LLM rerankers fail to consistently outperform strong collaborative and content baselines under natural traffic, and within-family scaling from Qwen3-8B to Qwen3-32B narrows but does not close the gap on most domains. In a retrieval-realistic regime where the gold item is not injected, the bottleneck is more severe: standard single retrievers place the gold item in a 200-item pool only 4.6-22.9% of the time, largely because 32-91% of cold-start targets are brand-new items with no training interactions. We introduce LHF, a validation-trained learned hybrid fusion layer over a multi-retriever union pool, as a retrieval-side realizability baseline. LHF is the only combiner we test that beats every single retriever on all five domains and recovers 17-61% of oracle coverage headroom on content-rich domains, but only 5-7% on collaboratively strong domains. End-to-end experiments reveal the remaining mismatch: learned non-LLM ranking exploits the LHF pool, while prompt-level LLM reranking often degrades it. LLMs exhibit pockets of semantic cold-start advantage, especially in text-rich domains when the item is already present, but this advantage is largely unreachable in current retrieve-then-rerank pipelines. We release the benchmark protocol, splits, prompts, evaluation tooling, and archived reproducibility artifacts: data at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20991039 and code at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20993306.

Know Before You Fetch: Calibrated Retrieval-Budget Allocation for Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) typically retrieves a fixed number of passages for every query. This is wasteful when the reader already knows the answer, and it can be harmful when irrelevant or partially relevant passages distract the reader. We formulate adaptive RAG as calibrated retrieval-budget allocation: given a query, decide whether to answer closed-book, retrieve a compact context (k=1), retrieve a full context (k=5), or abstain. The contribution is a probability interface rather than a new raw uncertainty signal. We calibrate sequence log-probability and prefix-logit uncertainty signals into probabilities of correctness, then use these probabilities for graded context selection, selective abstention, and explicit latency/token trade-offs. Across core QA experiments on TriviaQA, Natural Questions, and MS MARCO, with auxiliary PopQA motivation and Qwen/Llama family checks, diagnostic out-of-fold calibration improves probability quality dramatically: for sequence log-probability, ECE drops from 0.275 to 0.062 on TriviaQA, 0.643 to 0.009 on NQ, and 0.711 to 0.031 on MS MARCO. Graded retrieval improves full-context and passage-budget frontiers for both our signal and TARG-style prefix entropy/margin, while retrieval-call AUC remains essentially tied with binary gating because k=1 is still a retrieval call. Held-out train/validation/test threshold experiments report deployable operating points. At matched-accuracy frontier operating points, a measured cost model reveals that gating is not universally faster: it increases latency by about 27% on Qwen3-8B but saves about 8% on Qwen3-32B. These results support a nuanced view of adaptive RAG: calibrated confidence is best understood as a reusable interface for allocating retrieval budget under task and system constraints.

When Does Learning to Stop Help? A Cost-Aware Study of Early Exits in Reasoning Models

Reasoning models spend different amounts of useful computation across instances, but it remains unclear when a learned stopping rule improves over simple confidence or convergence thresholds. We study this question with LearnStop, a hidden-state-free checkpoint stopper for reasoning language models. At fixed budget checkpoints, LearnStop probes a short answer from the current reasoning prefix and predicts prefix correctness from online features such as answer confidence, entropy, prefix vote share, answer stability, and backtracking-marker density. Across 18 task-model settings spanning GSM8K, MATH-500, MMLU-Pro, AIME-90, GPQA, Qwen3, and DeepSeek-R1 distillations, the answer is task-dependent. On free-form math, learned multi-feature stopping improves the fixed-budget frontier and often beats scalar exits: on GSM8K with Qwen3-32B, the empirical frontier reaches a post-hoc peak adapt gain of +0.157, validation-selected operating points preserve positive gains, and the paired gain over the strongest scalar baseline is +0.028. On multiple-choice and very hard settings, scalar confidence, entropy, or stability rules are competitive or stronger. We therefore frame learned stopping not as a universal replacement for scalar exits, but as a tool whose value depends on trajectory structure. We further provide validation-selected operating points, paired bootstrap tests, finite-grid lost-correct risk calibration, cost accounting under KV-fork, prefix-cache, and black-box regimes, H100 serving profiles, checkpoint-schedule sweeps, transfer analyses, and robustness checks. The main practical finding is that learned stopping is useful when many questions become correct before full budget but do not exhibit a single reliable scalar stopping signal; its benefits largely disappear when confidence or answer convergence already solves the stopping problem.