Deformable State Estimation for Autonomous Surgical Tissue Retraction Under Partial Observability

Surgical tissue retraction requires effective manipulation planning under partial and noisy perception. We study state estimation for deformable tissue retraction, where only sparse observations of the tissue surface are available at decision time. We propose a learned state estimator that reconstructs the full deformable mesh state from 40 noisy vertex observations. The estimator combines a multilayer perceptron with a low-dimensional PCA latent representation and is trained using geometry-aware regularization that encourages smooth and physically plausible deformations. We evaluate the approach in a 2D deformable sheet simulation using single-step and multi-step retraction planning. Results show that the learned estimator achieves 98.1% of oracle performance in multi-step retraction while supporting efficient inference. These results demonstrate that learned, geometry-regularized state estimation can support effective deformable manipulation under realistic perception constraints.

Topology-Agnostic Mesh Reconstruction of Deformable Objects from Sparse Touch

Estimating the full shape of a deformable object is especially challenging when vision is unavailable: in the dark, inside an opaque bag, behind the manipulating hand, or under heavy self-occlusion. Touch is the natural sensor in these settings, but touches are sparse and local. We present a single topology-agnostic estimator that reconstructs the full mesh of a deformable object from only a few touches and no vision, using one permutation-invariant cross-attention architecture that handles a 1D rope, a 2D cloth, and a 3D volumetric soft body. The learned estimator reduces reconstruction error by roughly two-thirds relative to non-learned geometric mesh completion and a Gaussian-process surface baseline, and it outperforms a simpler global-pool set encoder, with the gap growing as more touches are observed. We then show that the estimator's deep-ensemble uncertainty can be used to learn where to touch next, which lowers error further and beats both random touching and a Gaussian-process active baseline at sparse budgets. This gain is modest on average but grows with self-occlusion and on the error tail. When vision is also available, where to touch barely matters, motivating the vision-free setting we study.

CAST: Time-Varying Treatment Effects with Application to Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy on Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Causal machine learning (CML) enables individualized estimation of treatment effects, offering critical advantages over traditional correlation-based methods. However, existing approaches for medical survival data with censoring such as causal survival forests estimate effects at fixed time points, limiting their ability to capture dynamic changes over time. We introduce Causal Analysis for Survival Trajectories (CAST), a novel framework that models treatment effects as continuous functions of time following treatment. By combining parametric and non-parametric methods, CAST overcomes the limitations of discrete time-point analysis to estimate continuous effect trajectories. Using the RADCURE dataset [1] of 2,651 patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) as a clinically relevant example, CAST models how chemotherapy and radiotherapy effects evolve over time at the population and individual levels. By capturing the temporal dynamics of treatment response, CAST reveals how treatment effects rise, peak, and decline over the follow-up period, helping clinicians determine when and for whom treatment benefits are maximized. This framework advances the application of CML to personalized care in HNSCC and other life-threatening medical conditions. Source code/data available at: https://github.com/CAST-FW/HNSCC