Toward Better Temporal Structures for Geopolitical Events Forecasting

Forecasting on geopolitical temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) through the lens of large language models (LLMs) has recently gained traction. While TKGs and their generalization, hyper-relational temporal knowledge graphs (HTKGs), offer a straightforward structure to represent simple temporal relationships, they lack the expressive power to convey complex facts efficiently. One of the critical limitations of HTKGs is a lack of support for more than two primary entities in temporal facts, which commonly occur in real-world events. To address this limitation, in this work, we study a generalization of HTKGs, Hyper-Relational Temporal Knowledge Generalized Hypergraphs (HTKGHs). We first derive a formalization for HTKGHs, demonstrating their backward compatibility while supporting two complex types of facts commonly found in geopolitical incidents. Then, utilizing this formalization, we introduce the htkgh-polecat dataset, built upon the global event database POLECAT. Finally, we benchmark and analyze popular LLMs on the relation prediction task, providing insights into their adaptability and capabilities in complex forecasting scenarios.

LOGicalThought: Logic-Based Ontological Grounding of LLMs for High-Assurance Reasoning

High-assurance reasoning, particularly in critical domains such as law and medicine, requires conclusions that are accurate, verifiable, and explicitly grounded in evidence. This reasoning relies on premises codified from rules, statutes, and contracts, inherently involving defeasible or non-monotonic logic due to numerous exceptions, where the introduction of a single fact can invalidate general rules, posing significant challenges. While large language models (LLMs) excel at processing natural language, their capabilities in standard inference tasks do not translate to the rigorous reasoning required over high-assurance text guidelines. Core reasoning challenges within such texts often manifest specific logical structures involving negation, implication, and, most critically, defeasible rules and exceptions. In this paper, we propose a novel neurosymbolically-grounded architecture called LOGicalThought (LogT) that uses an advanced logical language and reasoner in conjunction with an LLM to construct a dual symbolic graph context and logic-based context. These two context representations transform the problem from inference over long-form guidelines into a compact grounded evaluation. Evaluated on four multi-domain benchmarks against four baselines, LogT improves overall performance by 11.84% across all LLMs. Performance improves significantly across all three modes of reasoning: by up to +10.2% on negation, +13.2% on implication, and +5.5% on defeasible reasoning compared to the strongest baseline.