ShaplEIG: Bayesian Experimental Design for Shapley Value Estimation

Shapley values are a principled attribution measure widely used in interpretable machine learning, but their exact computation scales exponentially with the number of players, motivating a wide range of approximation methods based on value function evaluations of sampled coalitions. This raises the question of whether approximation accuracy can be improved by adaptively selecting coalitions for evaluation based on previous evaluations. This is particularly relevant in settings where the value function is costly and the number of evaluations is severely limited, such as retraining-based feature importance, data valuation, and hyperparameter importance. For this purpose, we propose ShaplEIG, a Bayesian experimental design approach that approximates the expensive value function using a Gaussian process surrogate and adaptively selects coalitions based on their expected information gain about the Shapley values. By the linearity of the Shapley values in the value function, we show that the expected information gain is available in closed form. Furthermore, we propose an efficient computation scheme that reduces the complexity from exponential to polynomial in the number of players via elementary symmetric polynomials. In extensive experiments across diverse costly applications, our method consistently improves sample efficiency in the low-budget regime over state-of-the-art baselines.

Interpretable Machine Learning for TabPFN

The recently developed Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) have shown very promising results for applications in low-data regimes. The TabPFN model, a special case of PFNs for tabular data, is able to achieve state-of-the-art performance on a variety of classification tasks while producing posterior predictive distributions in mere seconds by in-context learning without the need for learning parameters or hyperparameter tuning. This makes TabPFN a very attractive option for a wide range of domain applications. However, a major drawback of the method is its lack of interpretability. Therefore, we propose several adaptations of popular interpretability methods that we specifically design for TabPFN. By taking advantage of the unique properties of the model, our adaptations allow for more efficient computations than existing implementations. In particular, we show how in-context learning facilitates the estimation of Shapley values by avoiding approximate retraining and enables the use of Leave-One-Covariate-Out (LOCO) even when working with large-scale Transformers. In addition, we demonstrate how data valuation methods can be used to address scalability challenges of TabPFN. Our proposed methods are implemented in a package tabpfn_iml and made available at https://github.com/david-rundel/tabpfn_iml.