Rethinking Log Odds: Linear Probability Modelling and Expert Advice in Interpretable Machine Learning

We introduce a family of interpretable machine learning models, with two broad additions: Linearised Additive Models (LAMs) which replace the ubiquitous logistic link function in General Additive Models (GAMs); and SubscaleHedge, an expert advice algorithm for combining base models trained on subsets of features called subscales. LAMs can augment any additive binary classification model equipped with a sigmoid link function. Moreover, they afford direct global and local attributions of additive components to the model output in probability space. We argue that LAMs and SubscaleHedge improve the interpretability of their base algorithms. Using rigorous null-hypothesis significance testing on a broad suite of financial modelling data, we show that our algorithms do not suffer from large performance penalties in terms of ROC-AUC and calibration.

Towards learning to explain with concept bottleneck models: mitigating information leakage

Concept bottleneck models perform classification by first predicting which of a list of human provided concepts are true about a datapoint. Then a downstream model uses these predicted concept labels to predict the target label. The predicted concepts act as a rationale for the target prediction. Model trust issues emerge in this paradigm when soft concept labels are used: it has previously been observed that extra information about the data distribution leaks into the concept predictions. In this work we show how Monte-Carlo Dropout can be used to attain soft concept predictions that do not contain leaked information.

Feature Importance for Time Series Data: Improving KernelSHAP

Feature importance techniques have enjoyed widespread attention in the explainable AI literature as a means of determining how trained machine learning models make their predictions. We consider Shapley value based approaches to feature importance, applied in the context of time series data. We present closed form solutions for the SHAP values of a number of time series models, including VARMAX. We also show how KernelSHAP can be applied to time series tasks, and how the feature importances that come from this technique can be combined to perform "event detection". Finally, we explore the use of Time Consistent Shapley values for feature importance.

Robust Counterfactual Explanations for Tree-Based Ensembles

Counterfactual explanations inform ways to achieve a desired outcome from a machine learning model. However, such explanations are not robust to certain real-world changes in the underlying model (e.g., retraining the model, changing hyperparameters, etc.), questioning their reliability in several applications, e.g., credit lending. In this work, we propose a novel strategy -- that we call RobX -- to generate robust counterfactuals for tree-based ensembles, e.g., XGBoost. Tree-based ensembles pose additional challenges in robust counterfactual generation, e.g., they have a non-smooth and non-differentiable objective function, and they can change a lot in the parameter space under retraining on very similar data. We first introduce a novel metric -- that we call Counterfactual Stability -- that attempts to quantify how robust a counterfactual is going to be to model changes under retraining, and comes with desirable theoretical properties. Our proposed strategy RobX works with any counterfactual generation method (base method) and searches for robust counterfactuals by iteratively refining the counterfactual generated by the base method using our metric Counterfactual Stability. We compare the performance of RobX with popular counterfactual generation methods (for tree-based ensembles) across benchmark datasets. The results demonstrate that our strategy generates counterfactuals that are significantly more robust (nearly 100% validity after actual model changes) and also realistic (in terms of local outlier factor) over existing state-of-the-art methods.

Global Counterfactual Explanations: Investigations, Implementations and Improvements

Counterfactual explanations have been widely studied in explainability, with a range of application dependent methods emerging in fairness, recourse and model understanding. However, the major shortcoming associated with these methods is their inability to provide explanations beyond the local or instance-level. While some works touch upon the notion of a global explanation, typically suggesting to aggregate masses of local explanations in the hope of ascertaining global properties, few provide frameworks that are either reliable or computationally tractable. Meanwhile, practitioners are requesting more efficient and interactive explainability tools. We take this opportunity to investigate existing global methods, with a focus on implementing and improving Actionable Recourse Summaries (AReS), the only known global counterfactual explanation framework for recourse.

Asynchronous Collaborative Learning Across Data Silos

Machine learning algorithms can perform well when trained on large datasets. While large organisations often have considerable data assets, it can be difficult for these assets to be unified in a manner that makes training possible. Data is very often 'siloed' in different parts of the organisation, with little to no access between silos. This fragmentation of data assets is especially prevalent in heavily regulated industries like financial services or healthcare. In this paper we propose a framework to enable asynchronous collaborative training of machine learning models across data silos. This allows data science teams to collaboratively train a machine learning model, without sharing data with one another. Our proposed approach enhances conventional federated learning techniques to make them suitable for this asynchronous training in this intra-organisation, cross-silo setting. We validate our proposed approach via extensive experiments.

Explaining Preference-driven Schedules: the EXPRES Framework

Scheduling is the task of assigning a set of scarce resources distributed over time to a set of agents, who typically have preferences about the assignments they would like to get. Due to the constrained nature of these problems, satisfying all agents' preferences is often infeasible, which might lead to some agents not being happy with the resulting schedule. Providing explanations has been shown to increase satisfaction and trust in solutions produced by AI tools. However, it is particularly challenging to explain solutions that are influenced by and impact on multiple agents. In this paper we introduce the EXPRES framework, which can explain why a given preference was unsatisfied in a given optimal schedule. The EXPRES framework consists of: (i) an explanation generator that, based on a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming model, finds the best set of reasons that can explain an unsatisfied preference; and (ii) an explanation parser, which translates the generated explanations into human interpretable ones. Through simulations, we show that the explanation generator can efficiently scale to large instances. Finally, through a set of user studies within J.P. Morgan, we show that employees preferred the explanations generated by EXPRES over human-generated ones when considering workforce scheduling scenarios.

Optimal Admission Control for Multiclass Queues with Time-Varying Arrival Rates via State Abstraction

We consider a novel queuing problem where the decision-maker must choose to accept or reject randomly arriving tasks into a no buffer queue which are processed by $N$ identical servers. Each task has a price, which is a positive real number, and a class. Each class of task has a different price distribution and service rate, and arrives according to an inhomogenous Poisson process. The objective is to decide which tasks to accept so that the total price of tasks processed is maximised over a finite horizon. We formulate the problem as a discrete time Markov Decision Process (MDP) with a hybrid state space. We show that the optimal value function has a specific structure, which enables us to solve the hybrid MDP exactly. Moreover, we prove that as the time step is reduced, the discrete time solution approaches the optimal solution to the original continuous time problem. To improve the scalability of our approach to a greater number of task classes, we present an approximation based on state abstraction. We validate our approach on synthetic data, as well as a real financial fraud data set, which is the motivating application for this work.

Counterfactual Shapley Additive Explanations

Feature attributions are a common paradigm for model explanations due to their simplicity in assigning a single numeric score for each input feature to a model. In the actionable recourse setting, wherein the goal of the explanations is to improve outcomes for model consumers, it is often unclear how feature attributions should be correctly used. With this work, we aim to strengthen and clarify the link between actionable recourse and feature attributions. Concretely, we propose a variant of SHAP, CoSHAP, that uses counterfactual generation techniques to produce a background dataset for use within the marginal (a.k.a. interventional) Shapley value framework. We motivate the need within the actionable recourse setting for careful consideration of background datasets when using Shapley values for feature attributions, alongside the requirement for monotonicity, with numerous synthetic examples. Moreover, we demonstrate the efficacy of CoSHAP by proposing and justifying a quantitative score for feature attributions, counterfactual-ability, showing that as measured by this metric, CoSHAP is superior to existing methods when evaluated on public datasets using monotone tree ensembles.