Staggered Integral Online Conformal Prediction for Safe Dynamics Adaptation with Multi-Step Coverage Guarantees

Safety-critical control of uncertain, adaptive systems often relies on conservative, worst-case uncertainty bounds that limit closed-loop performance. Online conformal prediction is a powerful data-driven method for quantifying uncertainty when truth values of predicted outputs are revealed online; however, for systems that adapt the dynamics without measurements of the state derivatives, standard online conformal prediction is insufficient to quantify the model uncertainty. We propose Staggered Integral Online Conformal Prediction (SI-OCP), an algorithm utilizing an integral score function to quantify the lumped effect of disturbance and learning error. This approach provides long-run coverage guarantees, resulting in long-run safety when synthesized with safety-critical controllers, including robust tube model predictive control. Finally, we validate the proposed approach through a numerical simulation of an all-layer deep neural network (DNN) adaptive quadcopter using robust tube MPC, highlighting the applicability of our method to complex learning parameterizations and control strategies.

Enabling Safety for Aerial Robots: Planning and Control Architectures

Ensuring safe autonomy is crucial for deploying aerial robots in real-world applications. However, safety is a multifaceted challenge that must be addressed from multiple perspectives, including navigation in dynamic environments, operation under resource constraints, and robustness against adversarial attacks and uncertainties. In this paper, we present the authors' recent work that tackles some of these challenges and highlights key aspects that must be considered to enhance the safety and performance of autonomous aerial systems. All presented approaches are validated through hardware experiments.