Bayesian Uncertainty Propagation for Agentic RAG Pipelines: A Proof-of-Concept Study on Multi-Hop Question Answering

Trustworthy deployment of Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems requires mechanisms for estimating when multi-stage reasoning pipelines may fail. This paper presents an uncertainty-aware Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework in which planner, evaluator and generator stages produce uncertainty signals derived from semantic divergence and generator self-evaluation. These signals are propagated through a Bayesian Network (BN) to estimate system-level uncertainty and provide node-level indicators of potential failure points across the workflow. The approach is evaluated on StrategyQA and HotpotQA using GPT-3.5-Turbo and GPT-4.1-Nano, with Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC), Area Under the Accuracy-Rejection Curve (AUARC), Expected Calibration Error (ECE), and Brier Score used to assess discrimination, selective prediction and calibration. Results show that Bayesian propagation is more effective on HotpotQA, where uncertainty accumulates across multi-hop reasoning stages, while StrategyQA exposes limitations caused by miscalibration and unreliable upstream signals. The study positions Bayesian uncertainty propagation as a promising but preliminary mechanism for monitoring Agentic RAG systems, with future validation required in industrial domains such as Offshore Wind (OSW) maintenance decision support.

RAGuard: A Novel Approach for in-context Safe Retrieval Augmented Generation for LLMs

Accuracy and safety are paramount in Offshore Wind (OSW) maintenance, yet conventional Large Language Models (LLMs) often fail when confronted with highly specialised or unexpected scenarios. We introduce RAGuard, an enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) framework that explicitly integrates safety-critical documents alongside technical manuals.By issuing parallel queries to two indices and allocating separate retrieval budgets for knowledge and safety, RAGuard guarantees both technical depth and safety coverage. We further develop a SafetyClamp extension that fetches a larger candidate pool, "hard-clamping" exact slot guarantees to safety. We evaluate across sparse (BM25), dense (Dense Passage Retrieval) and hybrid retrieval paradigms, measuring Technical Recall@K and Safety Recall@K. Both proposed extensions of RAG show an increase in Safety Recall@K from almost 0\% in RAG to more than 50\% in RAGuard, while maintaining Technical Recall above 60\%. These results demonstrate that RAGuard and SafetyClamp have the potential to establish a new standard for integrating safety assurance into LLM-powered decision support in critical maintenance contexts.

SafeLLM: Domain-Specific Safety Monitoring for Large Language Models: A Case Study of Offshore Wind Maintenance

The Offshore Wind (OSW) industry is experiencing significant expansion, resulting in increased Operations \& Maintenance (O\&M) costs. Intelligent alarm systems offer the prospect of swift detection of component failures and process anomalies, enabling timely and precise interventions that could yield reductions in resource expenditure, as well as scheduled and unscheduled downtime. This paper introduces an innovative approach to tackle this challenge by capitalising on Large Language Models (LLMs). We present a specialised conversational agent that incorporates statistical techniques to calculate distances between sentences for the detection and filtering of hallucinations and unsafe output. This potentially enables improved interpretation of alarm sequences and the generation of safer repair action recommendations by the agent. Preliminary findings are presented with the approach applied to ChatGPT-4 generated test sentences. The limitation of using ChatGPT-4 and the potential for enhancement of this agent through re-training with specialised OSW datasets are discussed.

A Deep Learning Framework for Wind Turbine Repair Action Prediction Using Alarm Sequences and Long Short Term Memory Algorithms

With an increasing emphasis on driving down the costs of Operations and Maintenance (O$\&$M) in the Offshore Wind (OSW) sector, comes the requirement to explore new methodology and applications of Deep Learning (DL) to the domain. Condition-based monitoring (CBM) has been at the forefront of recent research developing alarm-based systems and data-driven decision making. This paper provides a brief insight into the research being conducted in this area, with a specific focus on alarm sequence modelling and the associated challenges faced in its implementation. The paper proposes a novel idea to predict a set of relevant repair actions from an input sequence of alarm sequences, comparing Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional LSTM (biLSTM) models. Achieving training accuracy results of up to 80.23$\%$, and test accuracy results of up to 76.01$\%$ with biLSTM gives a strong indication to the potential benefits of the proposed approach that can be furthered in future research. The paper introduces a framework that integrates the proposed approach into O$\&$M procedures and discusses the potential benefits which include the reduction of a confusing plethora of alarms, as well as unnecessary vessel transfers to the turbines for fault diagnosis and correction.