Generalised Entropy MDPs and Minimax Regret

Bayesian methods suffer from the problem of how to specify prior beliefs. One interesting idea is to consider worst-case priors. This requires solving a stochastic zero-sum game. In this paper, we extend well-known results from bandit theory in order to discover minimax-Bayes policies and discuss when they are practical.

Personalized News Recommendation with Context Trees

The profusion of online news articles makes it difficult to find interesting articles, a problem that can be assuaged by using a recommender system to bring the most relevant news stories to readers. However, news recommendation is challenging because the most relevant articles are often new content seen by few users. In addition, they are subject to trends and preference changes over time, and in many cases we do not have sufficient information to profile the reader. In this paper, we introduce a class of news recommendation systems based on context trees. They can provide high-quality news recommendation to anonymous visitors based on present browsing behaviour. We show that context-tree recommender systems provide good prediction accuracy and recommendation novelty, and they are sufficiently flexible to capture the unique properties of news articles.

Probabilistic inverse reinforcement learning in unknown environments

We consider the problem of learning by demonstration from agents acting in unknown stochastic Markov environments or games. Our aim is to estimate agent preferences in order to construct improved policies for the same task that the agents are trying to solve. To do so, we extend previous probabilistic approaches for inverse reinforcement learning in known MDPs to the case of unknown dynamics or opponents. We do this by deriving two simplified probabilistic models of the demonstrator's policy and utility. For tractability, we use maximum a posteriori estimation rather than full Bayesian inference. Under a flat prior, this results in a convex optimisation problem. We find that the resulting algorithms are highly competitive against a variety of other methods for inverse reinforcement learning that do have knowledge of the dynamics.

Cover Tree Bayesian Reinforcement Learning

This paper proposes an online tree-based Bayesian approach for reinforcement learning. For inference, we employ a generalised context tree model. This defines a distribution on multivariate Gaussian piecewise-linear models, which can be updated in closed form. The tree structure itself is constructed using the cover tree method, which remains efficient in high dimensional spaces. We combine the model with Thompson sampling and approximate dynamic programming to obtain effective exploration policies in unknown environments. The flexibility and computational simplicity of the model render it suitable for many reinforcement learning problems in continuous state spaces. We demonstrate this in an experimental comparison with least squares policy iteration.

ABC Reinforcement Learning

This paper introduces a simple, general framework for likelihood-free Bayesian reinforcement learning, through Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The main advantage is that we only require a prior distribution on a class of simulators (generative models). This is useful in domains where an analytical probabilistic model of the underlying process is too complex to formulate, but where detailed simulation models are available. ABC-RL allows the use of any Bayesian reinforcement learning technique, even in this case. In addition, it can be seen as an extension of rollout algorithms to the case where we do not know what the correct model to draw rollouts from is. We experimentally demonstrate the potential of this approach in a comparison with LSPI. Finally, we introduce a theorem showing that ABC is a sound methodology in principle, even when non-sufficient statistics are used.

Monte-Carlo utility estimates for Bayesian reinforcement learning

This paper introduces a set of algorithms for Monte-Carlo Bayesian reinforcement learning. Firstly, Monte-Carlo estimation of upper bounds on the Bayes-optimal value function is employed to construct an optimistic policy. Secondly, gradient-based algorithms for approximate upper and lower bounds are introduced. Finally, we introduce a new class of gradient algorithms for Bayesian Bellman error minimisation. We theoretically show that the gradient methods are sound. Experimentally, we demonstrate the superiority of the upper bound method in terms of reward obtained. However, we also show that the Bayesian Bellman error method is a close second, despite its significant computational simplicity.

Sparse Reward Processes

We introduce a class of learning problems where the agent is presented with a series of tasks. Intuitively, if there is relation among those tasks, then the information gained during execution of one task has value for the execution of another task. Consequently, the agent is intrinsically motivated to explore its environment beyond the degree necessary to solve the current task it has at hand. We develop a decision theoretic setting that generalises standard reinforcement learning tasks and captures this intuition. More precisely, we consider a multi-stage stochastic game between a learning agent and an opponent. We posit that the setting is a good model for the problem of life-long learning in uncertain environments, where while resources must be spent learning about currently important tasks, there is also the need to allocate effort towards learning about aspects of the world which are not relevant at the moment. This is due to the fact that unpredictable future events may lead to a change of priorities for the decision maker. Thus, in some sense, the model "explains" the necessity of curiosity. Apart from introducing the general formalism, the paper provides algorithms. These are evaluated experimentally in some exemplary domains. In addition, performance bounds are proven for some cases of this problem.

Bayesian multitask inverse reinforcement learning

We generalise the problem of inverse reinforcement learning to multiple tasks, from multiple demonstrations. Each one may represent one expert trying to solve a different task, or as different experts trying to solve the same task. Our main contribution is to formalise the problem as statistical preference elicitation, via a number of structured priors, whose form captures our biases about the relatedness of different tasks or expert policies. In doing so, we introduce a prior on policy optimality, which is more natural to specify. We show that our framework allows us not only to learn to efficiently from multiple experts but to also effectively differentiate between the goals of each. Possible applications include analysing the intrinsic motivations of subjects in behavioural experiments and learning from multiple teachers.

Robust Bayesian reinforcement learning through tight lower bounds

In the Bayesian approach to sequential decision making, exact calculation of the (subjective) utility is intractable. This extends to most special cases of interest, such as reinforcement learning problems. While utility bounds are known to exist for this problem, so far none of them were particularly tight. In this paper, we show how to efficiently calculate a lower bound, which corresponds to the utility of a near-optimal memoryless policy for the decision problem, which is generally different from both the Bayes-optimal policy and the policy which is optimal for the expected MDP under the current belief. We then show how these can be applied to obtain robust exploration policies in a Bayesian reinforcement learning setting.