AtmoRep: A stochastic model of atmosphere dynamics using large scale representation learning

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

AtmoDist: Self-supervised Representation Learning for Atmospheric Dynamics

Representation learning has proven to be a powerful methodology in a wide variety of machine learning applications. For atmospheric dynamics, however, it has so far not been considered, arguably due to the lack of large-scale, labeled datasets that could be used for training. In this work, we show that the difficulty is benign and introduce a self-supervised learning task that defines a categorical loss for a wide variety of unlabeled atmospheric datasets. Specifically, we train a neural network on the simple yet intricate task of predicting the temporal distance between atmospheric fields, e.g. the components of the wind field, from distinct but nearby times. Despite this simplicity, a neural network will provide good predictions only when it develops an internal representation that captures intrinsic aspects of atmospheric dynamics. We demonstrate this by introducing a data-driven distance metric for atmospheric states based on representations learned from ERA5 reanalysis. When employ as a loss function for downscaling, this Atmodist distance leads to downscaled fields that match the true statistics more closely than the previous state-of-the-art based on an l2-loss and whose local behavior is more realistic. Since it is derived from observational data, AtmoDist also provides a novel perspective on atmospheric predictability.

Towards Representation Learning for Atmospheric Dynamics

The prediction of future climate scenarios under anthropogenic forcing is critical to understand climate change and to assess the impact of potentially counter-acting technologies. Machine learning and hybrid techniques for this prediction rely on informative metrics that are sensitive to pertinent but often subtle influences. For atmospheric dynamics, a critical part of the climate system, the "eyeball metric", i.e. a visual inspection by an expert, is currently still the gold standard. However, it cannot be used as metric in machine learning systems where an algorithmic description is required. Motivated by the success of intermediate neural network activations as basis for learned metrics, e.g. in computer vision, we present a novel, self-supervised representation learning approach specifically designed for atmospheric dynamics. Our approach, called AtmoDist, trains a neural network on a simple, auxiliary task: predicting the temporal distance between elements of a shuffled sequence of atmospheric fields (e.g. the components of the wind field from a reanalysis or simulation). The task forces the network to learn important intrinsic aspects of the data as activations in its layers and from these hence a discriminative metric can be obtained. We demonstrate this by using AtmoDist to define a metric for GAN-based super resolution of vorticity and divergence. Our upscaled data matches closely the true statistics of a high resolution reference and it significantly outperform the state-of-the-art based on mean squared error. Since AtmoDist is unsupervised, only requires a temporal sequence of fields, and uses a simple auxiliary task, it can be used in a wide range of applications that aim to understand and mitigate climate change.

Local Fourier Slice Photography

Light field cameras provide intriguing possibilities, such as post-capture refocus or the ability to look behind an object. This comes, however, at the price of significant storage requirements. Compression techniques can be used to reduce these but refocusing and reconstruction require so far again a dense representation. To avoid this, we introduce a sheared local Fourier slice equation that allows for refocusing directly from a compressed light field, either to obtain an image or a compressed representation of it. The result is made possible by wavelets that respect the "slicing's" intrinsic structure and enable us to derive exact reconstruction filters for the refocused image in closed form. Image reconstruction then amounts to applying these filters to the light field's wavelet coefficients, and hence no decompression is necessary. We demonstrate that this substantially reduces storage requirements and also computation times. We furthermore analyze the computational complexity of our algorithm and show that it scales linearly with the size of the reconstructed region and the non-negligible wavelet coefficients, i.e. with the visual complexity.