ForecastPFN: Synthetically-Trained Zero-Shot Forecasting

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

DeGPR: Deep Guided Posterior Regularization for Multi-Class Cell Detection and Counting

Multi-class cell detection and counting is an essential task for many pathological diagnoses. Manual counting is tedious and often leads to inter-observer variations among pathologists. While there exist multiple, general-purpose, deep learning-based object detection and counting methods, they may not readily transfer to detecting and counting cells in medical images, due to the limited data, presence of tiny overlapping objects, multiple cell types, severe class-imbalance, minute differences in size/shape of cells, etc. In response, we propose guided posterior regularization (DeGPR), which assists an object detector by guiding it to exploit discriminative features among cells. The features may be pathologist-provided or inferred directly from visual data. We validate our model on two publicly available datasets (CoNSeP and MoNuSAC), and on MuCeD, a novel dataset that we contribute. MuCeD consists of 55 biopsy images of the human duodenum for predicting celiac disease. We perform extensive experimentation with three object detection baselines on three datasets to show that DeGPR is model-agnostic, and consistently improves baselines obtaining up to 9% (absolute) mAP gains.