Bandit Simulation for Average Reward Inference

Multi-arm bandit algorithms are increasingly used in online platforms, clinical trials, and social science experiments, but valid statistical inference on their performance remains an open challenge. After deploying bandits, a natural question is whether one can construct a confidence interval for its mean reward and assess whether it reliably outperforms a baseline policy. The total reward achieved in any single bandit deployment is random, and deploying a bandit twice on the same population typically yields different reward trajectories due to stochastic rewards. Standard statistical inference methods cannot be used because bandit algorithms introduce complex dependencies in the collected data, which violate the i.i.d. assumption underlying many classical approaches. Moreover, existing inference methods for adaptively collected data only apply to estimands that do not depend on the data-collection algorithm (such as the mean reward under a fixed action). We propose Bandit Simulation for Inference (BSI), a framework that fits a simulator of the bandit environment from observed data--either on-policy or off-policy--and uses it to estimate the mean reward under any evaluation policy, including adaptive blackbox algorithms. BSI formally propagates uncertainty in the estimated simulator parameters into the confidence interval construction. Furthermore, for BSI to be valid, it requires only weak exploration assumptions on the behavior policy and avoids importance weighting. We prove that BSI yields asymptotically valid confidence intervals, and demonstrate empirically that it maintains nominal coverage in settings where standard off-policy evaluation methods fail.

Collaborative Contextual Bayesian Optimization

Discovering optimal designs through sequential data collection is essential in many real-world applications. While Bayesian Optimization (BO) has achieved remarkable success in this setting, growing attention has recently turned to context-specific optimal design, formalized as Contextual Bayesian Optimization (CBO). Unlike BO, CBO is inherently more challenging as it must approximate an entire mapping from the context space to its corresponding optimal design, requiring simultaneous exploration across contexts and exploitation within each. In many modern applications, such tasks arise across multiple potentially heterogeneous but related clients, where collaboration can significantly improve learning efficiency. We propose CCBO, Collaborative Contextual Bayesian Optimization, a unified framework enabling multiple clients to jointly perform CBO with controllable contexts, supporting both online collaboration and offline initialization from peers' historical beliefs, with an optional privacy-preserving communication mechanism. We establish sublinear regret guarantees and demonstrate, through extensive simulations and a real-world hot rolling application, that CCBO achieves substantial improvements over existing approaches even under client heterogeneity. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/cchihyu/Collaborative-Contextual-Bayesian-Optimization

$\texttt{LLINBO}$: Trustworthy LLM-in-the-Loop Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sequential decision-making tool widely used for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable adaptability in low-data regimes, making them promising tools for black-box optimization by leveraging contextual knowledge to propose high-quality query points. However, relying solely on LLMs as optimization agents introduces risks due to their lack of explicit surrogate modeling and calibrated uncertainty, as well as their inherently opaque internal mechanisms. This structural opacity makes it difficult to characterize or control the exploration-exploitation trade-off, ultimately undermining theoretical tractability and reliability. To address this, we propose LLINBO: LLM-in-the-Loop BO, a hybrid framework for BO that combines LLMs with statistical surrogate experts (e.g., Gaussian Processes (GP)). The core philosophy is to leverage contextual reasoning strengths of LLMs for early exploration, while relying on principled statistical models to guide efficient exploitation. Specifically, we introduce three mechanisms that enable this collaboration and establish their theoretical guarantees. We end the paper with a real-life proof-of-concept in the context of 3D printing. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/LLM-in-the-Loop-BO.