LLM-based Agents for Automated Confounder Discovery and Subgroup Analysis in Causal Inference

Estimating individualized treatment effects from observational data presents a persistent challenge due to unmeasured confounding and structural bias. Causal Machine Learning (causal ML) methods, such as causal trees and doubly robust estimators, provide tools for estimating conditional average treatment effects. These methods have limited effectiveness in complex real-world environments due to the presence of latent confounders or those described in unstructured formats. Moreover, reliance on domain experts for confounder identification and rule interpretation introduces high annotation cost and scalability concerns. In this work, we proposed Large Language Model-based agents for automated confounder discovery and subgroup analysis that integrate agents into the causal ML pipeline to simulate domain expertise. Our framework systematically performs subgroup identification and confounding structure discovery by leveraging the reasoning capabilities of LLM-based agents, which reduces human dependency while preserving interpretability. Experiments on real-world medical datasets show that our proposed approach enhances treatment effect estimation robustness by narrowing confidence intervals and uncovering unrecognized confounding biases. Our findings suggest that LLM-based agents offer a promising path toward scalable, trustworthy, and semantically aware causal inference.

Towards Simulating Social Influence Dynamics with LLM-based Multi-agents

Recent advancements in Large Language Models offer promising capabilities to simulate complex human social interactions. We investigate whether LLM-based multi-agent simulations can reproduce core human social dynamics observed in online forums. We evaluate conformity dynamics, group polarization, and fragmentation across different model scales and reasoning capabilities using a structured simulation framework. Our findings indicate that smaller models exhibit higher conformity rates, whereas models optimized for reasoning are more resistant to social influence.

Understanding eGFR Trajectories and Kidney Function Decline via Large Multimodal Models

The estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) is an essential indicator of kidney function in clinical practice. Although traditional equations and Machine Learning (ML) models using clinical and laboratory data can estimate eGFR, accurately predicting future eGFR levels remains a significant challenge for nephrologists and ML researchers. Recent advances demonstrate that Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) can serve as robust foundation models for diverse applications. This study investigates the potential of LMMs to predict future eGFR levels with a dataset consisting of laboratory and clinical values from 50 patients. By integrating various prompting techniques and ensembles of LMMs, our findings suggest that these models, when combined with precise prompts and visual representations of eGFR trajectories, offer predictive performance comparable to existing ML models. This research extends the application of foundation models and suggests avenues for future studies to harness these models in addressing complex medical forecasting challenges.

Subgroup Analysis via Model-based Rule Forest

Machine learning models are often criticized for their black-box nature, raising concerns about their applicability in critical decision-making scenarios. Consequently, there is a growing demand for interpretable models in such contexts. In this study, we introduce Model-based Deep Rule Forests (mobDRF), an interpretable representation learning algorithm designed to extract transparent models from data. By leveraging IF-THEN rules with multi-level logic expressions, mobDRF enhances the interpretability of existing models without compromising accuracy. We apply mobDRF to identify key risk factors for cognitive decline in an elderly population, demonstrating its effectiveness in subgroup analysis and local model optimization. Our method offers a promising solution for developing trustworthy and interpretable machine learning models, particularly valuable in fields like healthcare, where understanding differential effects across patient subgroups can lead to more personalized and effective treatments.

Causal Rule Forest: Toward Interpretable and Precise Treatment Effect Estimation

Understanding and inferencing Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) are vital for developing personalized treatment recommendations. Many state-of-the-art approaches achieve inspiring performance in estimating HTE on benchmark datasets or simulation studies. However, the indirect predicting manner and complex model architecture reduce the interpretability of these approaches. To mitigate the gap between predictive performance and heterogeneity interpretability, we introduce the Causal Rule Forest (CRF), a novel approach to learning hidden patterns from data and transforming the patterns into interpretable multi-level Boolean rules. By training the other interpretable causal inference models with data representation learned by CRF, we can reduce the predictive errors of these models in estimating HTE and CATE, while keeping their interpretability for identifying subgroups that a treatment is more effective. Our experiments underscore the potential of CRF to advance personalized interventions and policies, paving the way for future research to enhance its scalability and application across complex causal inference challenges.

Toward Transparent Sequence Models with Model-Based Tree Markov Model

In this study, we address the interpretability issue in complex, black-box Machine Learning models applied to sequence data. We introduce the Model-Based tree Hidden Semi-Markov Model (MOB-HSMM), an inherently interpretable model aimed at detecting high mortality risk events and discovering hidden patterns associated with the mortality risk in Intensive Care Units (ICU). This model leverages knowledge distilled from Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to enhance predictive performance while offering clear explanations. Our experimental results indicate the improved performance of Model-Based trees (MOB trees) via employing LSTM for learning sequential patterns, which are then transferred to MOB trees. Integrating MOB trees with the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM) in the MOB-HSMM enables uncovering potential and explainable sequences using available information.