Predicting Language Models' Success at Zero-Shot Probabilistic Prediction

Recent work has investigated the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) as zero-shot models for generating individual-level characteristics (e.g., to serve as risk models or augment survey datasets). However, when should a user have confidence that an LLM will provide high-quality predictions for their particular task? To address this question, we conduct a large-scale empirical study of LLMs' zero-shot predictive capabilities across a wide range of tabular prediction tasks. We find that LLMs' performance is highly variable, both on tasks within the same dataset and across different datasets. However, when the LLM performs well on the base prediction task, its predicted probabilities become a stronger signal for individual-level accuracy. Then, we construct metrics to predict LLMs' performance at the task level, aiming to distinguish between tasks where LLMs may perform well and where they are likely unsuitable. We find that some of these metrics, each of which are assessed without labeled data, yield strong signals of LLMs' predictive performance on new tasks.

Reproducibility Study of Cooperation, Competition, and Maliciousness: LLM-Stakeholders Interactive Negotiation

This paper presents a reproducibility study and extension of "Cooperation, Competition, and Maliciousness: LLM-Stakeholders Interactive Negotiation." We validate the original findings using a range of open-weight models (1.5B-70B parameters) and GPT-4o Mini while introducing several novel contributions. We analyze the Pareto front of the games, propose a communication-free baseline to test whether successful negotiations are possible without agent interaction, evaluate recent small language models' performance, analyze structural information leakage in model responses, and implement an inequality metric to assess negotiation fairness. Our results demonstrate that smaller models (<10B parameters) struggle with format adherence and coherent responses, but larger open-weight models can approach proprietary model performance. Additionally, in many scenarios, single-agent approaches can achieve comparable results to multi-agent negotiations, challenging assumptions about the necessity of agent communication to perform well on the benchmark. This work also provides insights into the accessibility, fairness, environmental impact, and privacy considerations of LLM-based negotiation systems.