Inference-Time Decision Calibration for Temporal Classification

Temporal classification errors are often treated as representation failures, but they can also arise from how available evidence is converted into decisions. This paper proposes a representation--calibration decomposition for temporal classification. We keep a trained native classifier frozen and separate two inference-time interventions: a conservative residual multi-scale branch that adds auxiliary logits to the native prediction, and a post-hoc branch-aware calibrator that recombines native and residual evidence at decision time. This design distinguishes missing temporal evidence from underused decision-level evidence without retraining the backbone. Across FI-2010, PTB-XL, UCI-HAR, MHEALTH, and HARTH, we find that gains are strongly regime-dependent. Residual multi-scale evidence is most useful in noisy or representation-limited settings, especially short-horizon FI-2010 and weaker recurrent backbones, while branch-aware calibration helps when native and auxiliary logits contain complementary evidence not fully exploited by the raw decision rule. Near-saturated settings show limited gains from either intervention. These results suggest that temporal classification should be understood not only as representation learning, but also as the problem of trusting, combining, and calibrating evidence from multiple views.

POLAR:A Per-User Association Test in Embedding Space

Most intrinsic association probes operate at the word, sentence, or corpus level, obscuring author-level variation. We present POLAR (Per-user On-axis Lexical Association Re-port), a per-user lexical association test that runs in the embedding space of a lightly adapted masked language model. Authors are represented by private deterministic to-kens; POLAR projects these vectors onto curated lexicalaxes and reports standardized effects with permutation p-values and Benjamini--Hochberg control. On a balanced bot--human Twitter benchmark, POLAR cleanly separates LLM-driven bots from organic accounts; on an extremist forum,it quantifies strong alignment with slur lexicons and reveals rightward drift over time. The method is modular to new attribute sets and provides concise, per-author diagnostics for computational social science. All code is publicly avail-able at https://github.com/pedroaugtb/POLAR-A-Per-User-Association-Test-in-Embedding-Space.