Deciphering AutoML Ensembles: cattleia's Assistance in Decision-Making

In many applications, model ensembling proves to be better than a single predictive model. Hence, it is the most common post-processing technique in Automated Machine Learning (AutoML). The most popular frameworks use ensembles at the expense of reducing the interpretability of the final models. In our work, we propose cattleia - an application that deciphers the ensembles for regression, multiclass, and binary classification tasks. This tool works with models built by three AutoML packages: auto-sklearn, AutoGluon, and FLAML. The given ensemble is analyzed from different perspectives. We conduct a predictive performance investigation through evaluation metrics of the ensemble and its component models. We extend the validation perspective by introducing new measures to assess the diversity and complementarity of the model predictions. Moreover, we apply explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to examine the importance of variables. Summarizing obtained insights, we can investigate and adjust the weights with a modification tool to tune the ensemble in the desired way. The application provides the aforementioned aspects through dedicated interactive visualizations, making it accessible to a diverse audience. We believe the cattleia can support users in decision-making and deepen the comprehension of AutoML frameworks.

Rethinking of Encoder-based Warm-start Methods in Hyperparameter Optimization

Effectively representing heterogeneous tabular datasets for meta-learning remains an open problem. Previous approaches rely on predefined meta-features, for example, statistical measures or landmarkers. Encoder-based models, such as Dataset2Vec, allow us to extract significant meta-features automatically without human intervention. This research introduces a novel encoder-based representation of tabular datasets implemented within the liltab package available on GitHub https://github.com/azoz01/liltab. Our package is based on an established model for heterogeneous tabular data proposed in [Iwata and Kumagai, 2020]. The proposed approach employs a different model for encoding feature relationships, generating alternative representations compared to existing methods like Dataset2Vec. Both of them leverage the fundamental assumption of dataset similarity learning. In this work, we evaluate Dataset2Vec and liltab on two common meta-tasks - representing entire datasets and hyperparameter optimization warm-start. However, validation on an independent metaMIMIC dataset highlights the nuanced challenges in representation learning. We show that general representations may not suffice for some meta-tasks where requirements are not explicitly considered during extraction. [Iwata and Kumagai, 2020] Tomoharu Iwata and Atsutoshi Kumagai. Meta-learning from Tasks with Heterogeneous Attribute Spaces. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2020.

Enabling Machine Learning Algorithms for Credit Scoring -- Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods for clear understanding complex predictive models

Rapid development of advanced modelling techniques gives an opportunity to develop tools that are more and more accurate. However as usually, everything comes with a price and in this case, the price to pay is to loose interpretability of a model while gaining on its accuracy and precision. For managers to control and effectively manage credit risk and for regulators to be convinced with model quality the price to pay is too high. In this paper, we show how to take credit scoring analytics in to the next level, namely we present comparison of various predictive models (logistic regression, logistic regression with weight of evidence transformations and modern artificial intelligence algorithms) and show that advanced tree based models give best results in prediction of client default. What is even more important and valuable we also show how to boost advanced models using techniques which allow to interpret them and made them more accessible for credit risk practitioners, resolving the crucial obstacle in widespread deployment of more complex, 'black box' models like random forests, gradient boosted or extreme gradient boosted trees. All this will be shown on the large dataset obtained from the Polish Credit Bureau to which all the banks and most of the lending companies in the country do report the credit files. In this paper the data from lending companies were used. The paper then compares state of the art best practices in credit risk modelling with new advanced modern statistical tools boosted by the latest developments in the field of interpretability and explainability of artificial intelligence algorithms. We believe that this is a valuable contribution when it comes to presentation of different modelling tools but what is even more important it is showing which methods might be used to get insight and understanding of AI methods in credit risk context.