Can LLMs Reason in a Legally Meaningful Manner? A Small-scale Study on European Court of Human Rights Cases

Reasoning has become a standard technique and feature for contemporary LLMs; however, its application and quality in the context of demanding legal-oriented tasks, such as legal case forecasting, remain under explored. We investigate how LLMs reason in the context of legal case forecasting, using legal cases from the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) as a testbed. We evaluate OpenAI GPT 5.4, a recent top-tier LLM, by exploring alternative prompting strategies that are more or less suggestive of what counts as legally meaningful reasoning in the context of ECtHR jurisprudence. We present our findings derived from assessing the model's responses with both human and LLM evaluation. We find that the examined model scores far from ideal in legal reasoning, the model produces structurally complete but substantively shallow analyses, and that LLM-as-a-Judge evaluators are internally consistent yet align only weakly with our trained annotators, i.e., reliable but not a valid substitute for human evaluation. Overall, the expert-curated prompt leads to more comprehensive reasoning, which does not result in more accurate predictions compared to the other examined settings. Based on our findings, we urge the community not to rely solely on automated LLM-based evaluation and to avoid using task accuracy as an appropriate proxy for reasoning quality.

LP-Eval: Rubric and Dataset for Measuring the Quality of Legal Proposition Generation

Legal proposition generation is central to legal reasoning and doctrinal scholarship, yet remain under-examined in Legal NLP. This paper investigates the automatic generation and evaluation of legal propositions from decisions of the Court of Justice of the European Union using large language models (LLMs). We introduce LP-Eval, a three-step evaluation rubric co-designed with legal experts that decomposes legal proposition quality into formal validity and substantive dimensions. Using this rubric, we release a dataset of two experts' annotations for 100 LLM-generated legal propositions. Our results show that LLMs can generate predominantly well-formed and high-quality propositions, while expert evaluations reveal higher quality for propositions derived from well established cases than from recent ones. We further examine LLMs as evaluators and find that rubric-guided LLM judgments align more closely with expert assessments than direct overall scoring, but remain insensitive to finer-grained distinctions captured by human experts.