The Broad Optimality of Profile Maximum Likelihood

We study three fundamental statistical-learning problems: distribution estimation, property estimation, and property testing. We establish the profile maximum likelihood (PML) estimator as the first unified sample-optimal approach to a wide range of learning tasks. In particular, for every alphabet size $k$ and desired accuracy $\varepsilon$: $\textbf{Distribution estimation}$ Under $\ell_1$ distance, PML yields optimal $\Theta(k/(\varepsilon^2\log k))$ sample complexity for sorted-distribution estimation, and a PML-based estimator empirically outperforms the Good-Turing estimator on the actual distribution; $\textbf{Additive property estimation}$ For a broad class of additive properties, the PML plug-in estimator uses just four times the sample size required by the best estimator to achieve roughly twice its error, with exponentially higher confidence; $\boldsymbol{\alpha}\textbf{-R\'enyi entropy estimation}$ For integer $\alpha>1$, the PML plug-in estimator has optimal $k^{1-1/\alpha}$ sample complexity; for non-integer $\alpha>3/4$, the PML plug-in estimator has sample complexity lower than the state of the art; $\textbf{Identity testing}$ In testing whether an unknown distribution is equal to or at least $\varepsilon$ far from a given distribution in $\ell_1$ distance, a PML-based tester achieves the optimal sample complexity up to logarithmic factors of $k$. With minor modifications, most of these results also hold for a near-linear-time computable variant of PML.

Data Amplification: A Unified and Competitive Approach to Property Estimation

Estimating properties of discrete distributions is a fundamental problem in statistical learning. We design the first unified, linear-time, competitive, property estimator that for a wide class of properties and for all underlying distributions uses just $2n$ samples to achieve the performance attained by the empirical estimator with $n\sqrt{\log n}$ samples. This provides off-the-shelf, distribution-independent, "amplification" of the amount of data available relative to common-practice estimators. We illustrate the estimator's practical advantages by comparing it to existing estimators for a wide variety of properties and distributions. In most cases, its performance with $n$ samples is even as good as that of the empirical estimator with $n\log n$ samples, and for essentially all properties, its performance is comparable to that of the best existing estimator designed specifically for that property.

Data Amplification: Instance-Optimal Property Estimation

The best-known and most commonly used distribution-property estimation technique uses a plug-in estimator, with empirical frequency replacing the underlying distribution. We present novel linear-time-computable estimators that significantly "amplify" the effective amount of data available. For a large variety of distribution properties including four of the most popular ones and for every underlying distribution, they achieve the accuracy that the empirical-frequency plug-in estimators would attain using a logarithmic-factor more samples. Specifically, for Shannon entropy and a very broad class of properties including $\ell_1$-distance, the new estimators use $n$ samples to achieve the accuracy attained by the empirical estimators with $n\log n$ samples. For support-size and coverage, the new estimators use $n$ samples to achieve the performance of empirical frequency with sample size $n$ times the logarithm of the property value. Significantly strengthening the traditional min-max formulation, these results hold not only for the worst distributions, but for each and every underlying distribution. Furthermore, the logarithmic amplification factors are optimal. Experiments on a wide variety of distributions show that the new estimators outperform the previous state-of-the-art estimators designed for each specific property.

On Learning Markov Chains

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown $k$-state Markov chain from its $n$ sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general $f$-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is $\Omega(k\log\log n\ / n)$ and $\mathcal{O}(k^2\log\log n\ / n)$. For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth $f$-divergences, including KL-, $L_2$-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.

Maximum Selection and Ranking under Noisy Comparisons

We consider $(\epsilon,\delta)$-PAC maximum-selection and ranking for general probabilistic models whose comparisons probabilities satisfy strong stochastic transitivity and stochastic triangle inequality. Modifying the popular knockout tournament, we propose a maximum-selection algorithm that uses $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{n}{\epsilon^2}\log \frac{1}{\delta}\right)$ comparisons, a number tight up to a constant factor. We then derive a general framework that improves the performance of many ranking algorithms, and combine it with merge sort and binary search to obtain a ranking algorithm that uses $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{n\log n (\log \log n)^3}{\epsilon^2}\right)$ comparisons for any $\delta\ge\frac1n$, a number optimal up to a $(\log \log n)^3$ factor.

A Unified Maximum Likelihood Approach for Optimal Distribution Property Estimation

The advent of data science has spurred interest in estimating properties of distributions over large alphabets. Fundamental symmetric properties such as support size, support coverage, entropy, and proximity to uniformity, received most attention, with each property estimated using a different technique and often intricate analysis tools. We prove that for all these properties, a single, simple, plug-in estimator---profile maximum likelihood (PML)---performs as well as the best specialized techniques. This raises the possibility that PML may optimally estimate many other symmetric properties.

Estimating Renyi Entropy of Discrete Distributions

It was recently shown that estimating the Shannon entropy $H({\rm p})$ of a discrete $k$-symbol distribution ${\rm p}$ requires $\Theta(k/\log k)$ samples, a number that grows near-linearly in the support size. In many applications $H({\rm p})$ can be replaced by the more general R\'enyi entropy of order $\alpha$, $H_\alpha({\rm p})$. We determine the number of samples needed to estimate $H_\alpha({\rm p})$ for all $\alpha$, showing that $\alpha < 1$ requires a super-linear, roughly $k^{1/\alpha}$ samples, noninteger $\alpha>1$ requires a near-linear $k$ samples, but, perhaps surprisingly, integer $\alpha>1$ requires only $\Theta(k^{1-1/\alpha})$ samples. Furthermore, developing on a recently established connection between polynomial approximation and estimation of additive functions of the form $\sum_{x} f({\rm p}_x)$, we reduce the sample complexity for noninteger values of $\alpha$ by a factor of $\log k$ compared to the empirical estimator. The estimators achieving these bounds are simple and run in time linear in the number of samples. Our lower bounds provide explicit constructions of distributions with different R\'enyi entropies that are hard to distinguish.

Estimating the number of unseen species: A bird in the hand is worth $\log n $ in the bush

Estimating the number of unseen species is an important problem in many scientific endeavors. Its most popular formulation, introduced by Fisher, uses $n$ samples to predict the number $U$ of hitherto unseen species that would be observed if $t\cdot n$ new samples were collected. Of considerable interest is the largest ratio $t$ between the number of new and existing samples for which $U$ can be accurately predicted. In seminal works, Good and Toulmin constructed an intriguing estimator that predicts $U$ for all $t\le 1$, thereby showing that the number of species can be estimated for a population twice as large as that observed. Subsequently Efron and Thisted obtained a modified estimator that empirically predicts $U$ even for some $t>1$, but without provable guarantees. We derive a class of estimators that $\textit{provably}$ predict $U$ not just for constant $t>1$, but all the way up to $t$ proportional to $\log n$. This shows that the number of species can be estimated for a population $\log n$ times larger than that observed, a factor that grows arbitrarily large as $n$ increases. We also show that this range is the best possible and that the estimators' mean-square error is optimal up to constants for any $t$. Our approach yields the first provable guarantee for the Efron-Thisted estimator and, in addition, a variant which achieves stronger theoretical and experimental performance than existing methodologies on a variety of synthetic and real datasets. The estimators we derive are simple linear estimators that are computable in time proportional to $n$. The performance guarantees hold uniformly for all distributions, and apply to all four standard sampling models commonly used across various scientific disciplines: multinomial, Poisson, hypergeometric, and Bernoulli product.

Faster Algorithms for Testing under Conditional Sampling

There has been considerable recent interest in distribution-tests whose run-time and sample requirements are sublinear in the domain-size $k$. We study two of the most important tests under the conditional-sampling model where each query specifies a subset $S$ of the domain, and the response is a sample drawn from $S$ according to the underlying distribution. For identity testing, which asks whether the underlying distribution equals a specific given distribution or $\epsilon$-differs from it, we reduce the known time and sample complexities from $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-4})$ to $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-2})$, thereby matching the information theoretic lower bound. For closeness testing, which asks whether two distributions underlying observed data sets are equal or different, we reduce existing complexity from $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-4} \log^5 k)$ to an even sub-logarithmic $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-5} \log \log k)$ thus providing a better bound to an open problem in Bertinoro Workshop on Sublinear Algorithms [Fisher, 2004].