Research Entity Extraction and Topic Detection from UKRI Grant Proposals

This paper presents preliminary findings from a UKRI-funded Metascience project comparing three LLM-based approaches, GPT-4o, Mistral, and a bespoke algorithm, DSIT-Taxonomies, for extracting and classifying research entities from funding proposals. Our project "Tracking Stars and Unicorns" aims to identify early signals of emerging research areas to inform public investment. Our methodology employed a three-stage pipeline, leveraging Mistral for primary entity extraction and mapping against the OpenAlex Topics taxonomy. We evaluated our approach across 42 proposals' abstracts from different areas and observed that Mistral and GPT-4o produce comparable, high-quality entity sets with significant semantic overlap, outperforming the fragmented DSIT-Taxonomies approach. Crucially, the Mistral-based approach achieved superior topic classification accuracy (90.5%) compared to the full DSIT-Taxonomies pipeline (71.4%). We conclude that Mistral offers a high-performance, operationally efficient, and secure solution for large-scale analysis of sensitive grant data.

Predictable Artificial Intelligence

We introduce the fundamental ideas and challenges of Predictable AI, a nascent research area that explores the ways in which we can anticipate key indicators of present and future AI ecosystems. We argue that achieving predictability is crucial for fostering trust, liability, control, alignment and safety of AI ecosystems, and thus should be prioritised over performance. While distinctive from other areas of technical and non-technical AI research, the questions, hypotheses and challenges relevant to Predictable AI were yet to be clearly described. This paper aims to elucidate them, calls for identifying paths towards AI predictability and outlines the potential impact of this emergent field.