Faithful Embeddings of Irregular and Asynchronous Data for Online Log-NCDEs

Continuous-time models are a natural choice for irregular and asynchronous data. A central design choice is how to embed discrete observations into continuous time. Interpolation- and imputation-based embeddings reconstruct a continuous observation path, making the model sensitive to the choice of reconstruction. We show that this reconstruction step is unnecessary; under mild conditions, compact-set universality on the model input space transfers to the data space whenever the embedding from data to input is continuous and injective. Guided by this result, and building on the rectilinear control path for Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs), we introduce a continuous and injective embedding for Log-NCDEs, a universal class of continuous-time models. Our approach records observations as increments and composes them over arbitrary query intervals to directly form log-signatures. This provides interval-level summaries without first interpolating the observed variables, while supporting online computation. Experiments on synthetic controlled dynamics and real-world time-series datasets show that the representation is accurate, efficient, and robust to irregular, asynchronous, and sparse observations.

The Exponentially Weighted Signature

The signature is a canonical representation of a multidimensional path over an interval. However, it treats all historical information uniformly, offering no intrinsic mechanism for contextualising the relevance of the past. To address this, we introduce the Exponentially Weighted Signature (EWS), generalising the Exponentially Fading Memory (EFM) signature from diagonal to general bounded linear operators. These operators enable cross-channel coupling at the level of temporal weighting together with richer memory dynamics including oscillatory, growth, and regime-dependent behaviour, while preserving the algebraic strengths of the classical signature. We show that the EWS is the unique solution to a linear controlled differential equation on the tensor algebra, and that it generalises both state-space models and the Laplace and Fourier transforms of the path. The group-like structure of the EWS enables efficient computation and makes the framework amenable to gradient-based learning, with the full semigroup action parametrised by and learned through its generator. We use this framework to empirically demonstrate the expressivity gap between the EWS and both the signature and EFM on two SDE-based regression tasks.