Underwater Dead Reckoning with Deployable Situation-Triggered Covariance Scheduling

Underwater dead reckoning estimates vehicle position when vision is unavailable and external positioning cannot be assumed. A single set of filter parameters can work well in many situations, but fixed tuning may be poorly matched during turns, motion transitions, or periods when sensor measurements are less reliable. This paper presents the Situation-Triggered Calibrated Adaptive Robust Extended Kalman Filter for a BlueROV2. An onboard probabilistic trigger identifies the current motion situation while one error-state filter runs continuously. When the trigger is confident, the filter changes only to the corresponding pre-calibrated process- and measurement-noise matrices; the state estimate, covariance history, dynamics, and measurement models are not reset or replaced. The trigger, noise profiles, and a one-time Doppler velocity log yaw-alignment correction are calibrated offline using sparse AprilTag-supervised pool runs. A separate validation set selects the scheduling policy, which is then fixed before held-out testing. Across four held-out pool runs, the method reduces label-weighted mean per-run translation root-mean-square error from 0.488 m to 0.471 m relative to the same filter backbone with one global noise profile, and every held-out run favors the scheduled method. A paired bootstrap over 10-second segments gives a candidate-minus-baseline difference of -0.017 m with a 95% confidence interval of [-0.024, -0.008] m, while orientation error remains essentially unchanged. These results indicate that situation-aware covariance scheduling provides a modest but consistent vision-free dead-reckoning improvement without switching estimators or resetting the filter.