Personalized Counterfactual Framework: Generating Potential Outcomes from Wearable Data

Wearable sensor data offer opportunities for personalized health monitoring, yet deriving actionable insights from their complex, longitudinal data streams is challenging. This paper introduces a framework to learn personalized counterfactual models from multivariate wearable data. This enables exploring what-if scenarios to understand potential individual-specific outcomes of lifestyle choices. Our approach first augments individual datasets with data from similar patients via multi-modal similarity analysis. We then use a temporal PC (Peter-Clark) algorithm adaptation to discover predictive relationships, modeling how variables at time t-1 influence physiological changes at time t. Gradient Boosting Machines are trained on these discovered relationships to quantify individual-specific effects. These models drive a counterfactual engine projecting physiological trajectories under hypothetical interventions (e.g., activity or sleep changes). We evaluate the framework via one-step-ahead predictive validation and by assessing the plausibility and impact of interventions. Evaluation showed reasonable predictive accuracy (e.g., mean heart rate MAE 4.71 bpm) and high counterfactual plausibility (median 0.9643). Crucially, these interventions highlighted significant inter-individual variability in response to hypothetical lifestyle changes, showing the framework's potential for personalized insights. This work provides a tool to explore personalized health dynamics and generate hypotheses on individual responses to lifestyle changes.

Graph-Augmented LLMs for Personalized Health Insights: A Case Study in Sleep Analysis

Health monitoring systems have revolutionized modern healthcare by enabling the continuous capture of physiological and behavioral data, essential for preventive measures and early health intervention. While integrating this data with Large Language Models (LLMs) has shown promise in delivering interactive health advice, traditional methods like Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and fine-tuning often fail to fully utilize the complex, multi-dimensional, and temporally relevant data from wearable devices. These conventional approaches typically provide limited actionable and personalized health insights due to their inadequate capacity to dynamically integrate and interpret diverse health data streams. In response, this paper introduces a graph-augmented LLM framework designed to significantly enhance the personalization and clarity of health insights. Utilizing a hierarchical graph structure, the framework captures inter and intra-patient relationships, enriching LLM prompts with dynamic feature importance scores derived from a Random Forest Model. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated through a sleep analysis case study involving 20 college students during the COVID-19 lockdown, highlighting the potential of our model to generate actionable and personalized health insights efficiently. We leverage another LLM to evaluate the insights for relevance, comprehensiveness, actionability, and personalization, addressing the critical need for models that process and interpret complex health data effectively. Our findings show that augmenting prompts with our framework yields significant improvements in all 4 criteria. Through our framework, we can elicit well-crafted, more thoughtful responses tailored to a specific patient.