Efficient Learning and Decoding of the Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model for Disease Progression Modeling

The Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model (CT-HMM) is an attractive approach to modeling disease progression due to its ability to describe noisy observations arriving irregularly in time. However, the lack of an efficient parameter learning algorithm for CT-HMM restricts its use to very small models or requires unrealistic constraints on the state transitions. In this paper, we present the first complete characterization of efficient EM-based learning methods for CT-HMM models, as well as the first solution to decoding the optimal state transition sequence and the corresponding state dwelling time. We show that EM-based learning consists of two challenges: the estimation of posterior state probabilities and the computation of end-state conditioned statistics. We solve the first challenge by reformulating the estimation problem as an equivalent discrete time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model. The second challenge is addressed by adapting three distinct approaches from the continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) literature to the CT-HMM domain. Additionally, we further improve the efficiency of the most efficient method by a factor of the number of states. Then, for decoding, we incorporate a state-of-the-art method from the (CTMC) literature, and extend the end-state conditioned optimal state sequence decoding to the CT-HMM case with the computation of the expected state dwelling time. We demonstrate the use of CT-HMMs with more than 100 states to visualize and predict disease progression using a glaucoma dataset and an Alzheimer's disease dataset, and to decode and visualize the most probable state transition trajectory for individuals on the glaucoma dataset, which helps to identify progressing phenotypes in a comprehensive way. Finally, we apply the CT-HMM modeling and decoding strategy to investigate the progression of language acquisition and development.

Connecting Gaze, Scene, and Attention: Generalized Attention Estimation via Joint Modeling of Gaze and Scene Saliency

This paper addresses the challenging problem of estimating the general visual attention of people in images. Our proposed method is designed to work across multiple naturalistic social scenarios and provides a full picture of the subject's attention and gaze. In contrast, earlier works on gaze and attention estimation have focused on constrained problems in more specific contexts. In particular, our model explicitly represents the gaze direction and handles out-of-frame gaze targets. We leverage three different datasets using a multi-task learning approach. We evaluate our method on widely used benchmarks for single-tasks such as gaze angle estimation and attention-within-an-image, as well as on the new challenging task of generalized visual attention prediction. In addition, we have created extended annotations for the MMDB and GazeFollow datasets which are used in our experiments, which we will publicly release.