Variational Implicit Processes

This paper introduces the variational implicit processes (VIPs), a Bayesian nonparametric method based on a class of highly flexible priors over functions. Similar to Gaussian processes (GPs), in implicit processes (IPs), an implicit multivariate prior (data simulators, Bayesian neural networks, etc.) is placed over any finite collections of random variables. A novel and efficient variational inference algorithm for IPs is derived using wake-sleep updates, which gives analytic solutions and allows scalable hyper-parameter learning with stochastic optimization. Experiments on real-world regression datasets demonstrate that VIPs return better uncertainty estimates and superior performance over existing inference methods for GPs and Bayesian neural networks. With a Bayesian LSTM as the implicit prior, the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art results on predicting power conversion efficiency of molecules based on raw chemical formulas.