FaDIn: Fast Discretized Inference for Hawkes Processes with General Parametric Kernels

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their simplicity and computational ease when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for certain applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast L2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After supporting the use of discretization theoretically, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the effectiveness of the method is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to a more plausible estimation of pattern latency compared to the state-of-the-art.