Evaluating the effects of Data Sparsity on the Link-level Bicycling Volume Estimation: A Graph Convolutional Neural Network Approach

Accurate bicycling volume estimation is crucial for making informed decisions about future investments in bicycling infrastructure. Traditional link-level volume estimation models are effective for motorised traffic but face significant challenges when applied to the bicycling context because of sparse data and the intricate nature of bicycling mobility patterns. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first study to utilize a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) architecture to model link-level bicycling volumes. We estimate the Annual Average Daily Bicycle (AADB) counts across the City of Melbourne, Australia using Strava Metro bicycling count data. To evaluate the effectiveness of the GCN model, we benchmark it against traditional machine learning models, such as linear regression, support vector machines, and random forest. Our results show that the GCN model performs better than these traditional models in predicting AADB counts, demonstrating its ability to capture the spatial dependencies inherent in bicycle traffic data. We further investigate how varying levels of data sparsity affect performance of the GCN architecture. The GCN architecture performs well and better up to 80% sparsity level, but its limitations become apparent as the data sparsity increases further, emphasizing the need for further research on handling extreme data sparsity in bicycling volume estimation. Our findings offer valuable insights for city planners aiming to improve bicycling infrastructure and promote sustainable transportation.