A Hierarchical Framework with Spatio-Temporal Consistency Learning for Emergence Detection in Complex Adaptive Systems

Emergence, a global property of complex adaptive systems (CASs) constituted by interactive agents, is prevalent in real-world dynamic systems, e.g., network-level traffic congestions. Detecting its formation and evaporation helps to monitor the state of a system, allowing to issue a warning signal for harmful emergent phenomena. Since there is no centralized controller of CAS, detecting emergence based on each agent's local observation is desirable but challenging. Existing works are unable to capture emergence-related spatial patterns, and fail to model the nonlinear relationships among agents. This paper proposes a hierarchical framework with spatio-temporal consistency learning to solve these two problems by learning the system representation and agent representations, respectively. Especially, spatio-temporal encoders are tailored to capture agents' nonlinear relationships and the system's complex evolution. Representations of the agents and the system are learned by preserving the intrinsic spatio-temporal consistency in a self-supervised manner. Our method achieves more accurate detection than traditional methods and deep learning methods on three datasets with well-known yet hard-to-detect emergent behaviors. Notably, our hierarchical framework is generic, which can employ other deep learning methods for agent-level and system-level detection.