Modes of Sequence Models and Learning Coefficients

We develop a geometric account of sequence modelling that links patterns in the data to measurable properties of the loss landscape in transformer networks. First, we cast conditional sequence distributions into a Hilbert-space framework and apply tensor decompositions to identify their principal modes. Truncating the small-amplitude modes yields an effective data distribution that preserves dominant structure while discarding statistical detail. Second, we show theoretically that Local Learning Coefficient (LLC) estimates are insensitive to modes below a data-dependent threshold. Consequently, the LLC calculated in practice characterises the geometry of the effective rather than the true distribution. This insight clarifies why reliable LLC estimates can be obtained even when a network parameter is not a strict minimiser of the population loss, and it highlights how the inverse temperature in SGLD acts as a resolution dial on the landscape structure.

Dynamical versus Bayesian Phase Transitions in a Toy Model of Superposition

We investigate phase transitions in a Toy Model of Superposition (TMS) using Singular Learning Theory (SLT). We derive a closed formula for the theoretical loss and, in the case of two hidden dimensions, discover that regular $k$-gons are critical points. We present supporting theory indicating that the local learning coefficient (a geometric invariant) of these $k$-gons determines phase transitions in the Bayesian posterior as a function of training sample size. We then show empirically that the same $k$-gon critical points also determine the behavior of SGD training. The picture that emerges adds evidence to the conjecture that the SGD learning trajectory is subject to a sequential learning mechanism. Specifically, we find that the learning process in TMS, be it through SGD or Bayesian learning, can be characterized by a journey through parameter space from regions of high loss and low complexity to regions of low loss and high complexity.