Abstract:Financial fraud detection is essential to safeguard billions of dollars, yet the intertwined entities and fast-changing transaction behaviors in modern financial systems routinely defeat conventional machine learning models. Recent graph-based detectors make headway by representing transactions as networks, but they still overlook two fraud hallmarks rooted in time: (1) temporal motifs--recurring, telltale subgraphs that reveal suspicious money flows as they unfold--and (2) account-specific intervals of anomalous activity, when fraud surfaces only in short bursts unique to each entity. To exploit both signals, we introduce ATM-GAD, an adaptive graph neural network that leverages temporal motifs for financial anomaly detection. A Temporal Motif Extractor condenses each account's transaction history into the most informative motifs, preserving both topology and temporal patterns. These motifs are then analyzed by dual-attention blocks: IntraA reasons over interactions within a single motif, while InterA aggregates evidence across motifs to expose multi-step fraud schemes. In parallel, a differentiable Adaptive Time-Window Learner tailors the observation window for every node, allowing the model to focus precisely on the most revealing time slices. Experiments on four real-world datasets show that ATM-GAD consistently outperforms seven strong anomaly-detection baselines, uncovering fraud patterns missed by earlier methods.
Abstract:The Bayesian two-step change point detection method is popular for the Hawkes process due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. However, the non-conjugacy between the point process likelihood and the prior requires most existing Bayesian two-step change point detection methods to rely on non-conjugate inference methods. These methods lack analytical expressions, leading to low computational efficiency and impeding timely change point detection. To address this issue, this work employs data augmentation to propose a conjugate Bayesian two-step change point detection method for the Hawkes process, which proves to be more accurate and efficient. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the superior effectiveness and efficiency of our method compared to baseline methods. Additionally, we conduct ablation studies to explore the robustness of our method concerning various hyperparameters. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Aurora2050/CoBay-CPD.