Surrogate Graph Partitioning for Spatial Prediction

Spatial prediction refers to the estimation of unobserved values from spatially distributed observations. Although recent advances have improved the capacity to model diverse observation types, adoption in practice remains limited in industries that demand interpretability. To mitigate this gap, surrogate models that explain black-box predictors provide a promising path toward interpretable decision making. In this study, we propose a graph partitioning problem to construct spatial segments that minimize the sum of within-segment variances of individual predictions. The assignment of data points to segments can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem. While this formulation potentially enables the identification of exact segments, its computational complexity becomes prohibitive as the number of data points increases. Motivated by this challenge, we develop an approximation scheme that leverages the structural properties of graph partitioning. Experimental results demonstrate the computational efficiency of this approximation in identifying spatial segments.

Learning Survival Models with Right-Censored Reporting Delays

Survival analysis is a statistical technique used to estimate the time until an event occurs. Although it is applied across a wide range of fields, adjusting for reporting delays under practical constraints remains a significant challenge in the insurance industry. Such delays render event occurrences unobservable when their reports are subject to right censoring. This issue becomes particularly critical when estimating hazard rates for newly enrolled cohorts with limited follow-up due to administrative censoring. Our study addresses this challenge by jointly modeling the parametric hazard functions of event occurrences and report timings. The joint probability distribution is marginalized over the latent event occurrence status. We construct an estimator for the proposed survival model and establish its asymptotic consistency. Furthermore, we develop an expectation-maximization algorithm to compute its estimates. Using these findings, we propose a two-stage estimation procedure based on a parametric proportional hazards model to evaluate observations subject to administrative censoring. Experimental results demonstrate that our method effectively improves the timeliness of risk evaluation for newly enrolled cohorts.

Learning from Summarized Data: Gaussian Process Regression with Sample Quasi-Likelihood

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit from this development. Difficulties still arise when we can only access summarized data consisting of representative features, summary statistics, and data point counts. Such situations frequently occur primarily due to concerns about confidentiality and management costs associated with spatial data. This study tackles learning and inference using only summarized data within the framework of Gaussian process regression. To address this challenge, we analyze the approximation errors in the marginal likelihood and posterior distribution that arise from utilizing representative features. We also introduce the concept of sample quasi-likelihood, which facilitates learning and inference using only summarized data. Non-Gaussian likelihoods satisfying certain assumptions can be captured by specifying a variance function that characterizes a sample quasi-likelihood function. Theoretical and experimental results demonstrate that the approximation performance is influenced by the granularity of summarized data relative to the length scale of covariance functions. Experiments on a real-world dataset highlight the practicality of our method for spatial modeling.

Likelihood-Free Gaussian Process for Regression

Gaussian process regression can flexibly represent the posterior distribution of an interest parameter providing that information on the likelihood is sufficient. However, in some cases, we have little knowledge regarding the probability model. For example, when investing in a financial instrument, the probability model of cash flow is generally unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called the likelihood-free Gaussian process (LFGP), which allows representation of the posterior distributions of interest parameters for scalable problems without directly setting their likelihood functions. The LFGP establishes clusters in which the probability distributions of the targets can be considered identical, and it approximates the likelihood of the interest parameter in each cluster to a Gaussian using the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. We expect that the proposed framework will contribute significantly to likelihood-free modeling, especially from the perspective of fewer assumptions for the probability model and low computational costs for scalable problems.

Efficient Conversion of Bayesian Network Learning into Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization

Ising machines (IMs) are a potential breakthrough in the NP-hard problem of score-based Bayesian network (BN) learning. To utilize the power of IMs, encoding of BN learning into quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) has been proposed using up to $\mathcal{O}(N^2)$ bits, for $N$ variables in BN and $M = 2$ parents each. However, this approach is usually infeasible owing to the upper bound of IM bits when $M \geq 3$. In this paper, we propose an efficient conversion method for BN learning into QUBO with a maximum of $\sum_n (\Lambda_n - 1) + \binom N2$ bits, for $\Lambda_n$ parent set candidates each. The advance selection of parent set candidates plays an essential role in reducing the number of required bits. We also develop a pre-processing algorithm based on the capabilities of a classification and regression tree (CART), which allows us to search for parent set candidates consistent with score minimization in a realistic timeframe.Our conversion method enables us to more significantly reduce the upper bound of the required bits in comparison to an existing method, and is therefore expected to make a significant contribution to the advancement of scalable score-based BN learning.