The Roots of International Perceptions: Simulating US Attitude Changes Towards China with LLM Agents

The rise of LLMs poses new possibilities in modeling opinion evolution, a long-standing task in simulation, by leveraging advanced reasoning abilities to recreate complex, large-scale human cognitive trends. While most prior works focus on opinion evolution surrounding specific isolated events or the views within a country, ours is the first to model the large-scale attitude evolution of a population representing an entire country towards another -- US citizens' perspectives towards China. To tackle the challenges of this broad scenario, we propose a framework that integrates media data collection, user profile creation, and cognitive architecture for opinion updates to successfully reproduce the real trend of US attitudes towards China over a 20-year period from 2005 to today. We also leverage LLMs' capabilities to introduce debiased media exposure, extracting neutral events from typically subjective news contents, to uncover the roots of polarized opinion formation, as well as a devils advocate agent to help explain the rare reversal from negative to positive attitudes towards China, corresponding with changes in the way Americans obtain information about the country. The simulation results, beyond validating our framework architecture, also reveal the impact of biased framing and selection bias in shaping attitudes. Overall, our work contributes to a new paradigm for LLM-based modeling of cognitive behaviors in a large-scale, long-term, cross-border social context, providing insights into the formation of international biases and offering valuable implications for media consumers to better understand the factors shaping their perspectives, and ultimately contributing to the larger social need for bias reduction and cross-cultural tolerance.