Variational Temporal IRT: Fast, Accurate, and Explainable Inference of Dynamic Learner Proficiency

Dynamic Item Response Models extend the standard Item Response Theory (IRT) to capture temporal dynamics in learner ability. While these models have the potential to allow instructional systems to actively monitor the evolution of learner proficiency in real time, existing dynamic item response models rely on expensive inference algorithms that scale poorly to massive datasets. In this work, we propose Variational Temporal IRT (VTIRT) for fast and accurate inference of dynamic learner proficiency. VTIRT offers orders of magnitude speedup in inference runtime while still providing accurate inference. Moreover, the proposed algorithm is intrinsically interpretable by virtue of its modular design. When applied to 9 real student datasets, VTIRT consistently yields improvements in predicting future learner performance over other learner proficiency models.

Linking Sequences of Events with Sparse or No Common Occurrence across Data Sets

Data of practical interest - such as personal records, transaction logs, and medical histories - are sequential collections of events relevant to a particular source entity. Recent studies have attempted to link sequences that represent a common entity across data sets to allow more comprehensive statistical analyses and to identify potential privacy failures. Yet, current approaches remain tailored to their specific domains of application, and they fail when co-referent sequences in different data sets contain sparse or no common events, which occurs frequently in many cases. To address this, we formalize the general problem of "sequence linkage" and describe "LDA-Link," a generic solution that is applicable even when co-referent event sequences contain no common items at all. LDA-Link is built upon "Split-Document" model, a new mixed-membership probabilistic model for the generation of event sequence collections. It detects the latent similarity of sequences and thus achieves robustness particularly when co-referent sequences share sparse or no event overlap. We apply LDA-Link in the context of social media profile reconciliation where users make no common posts across platforms, comparing to the state-of-the-art generic solution to sequence linkage.