Fiducial Matching: Differentially Private Inference for Categorical Data

The task of statistical inference, which includes the building of confidence intervals and tests for parameters and effects of interest to a researcher, is still an open area of investigation in a differentially private (DP) setting. Indeed, in addition to the randomness due to data sampling, DP delivers another source of randomness consisting of the noise added to protect an individual's data from being disclosed to a potential attacker. As a result of this convolution of noises, in many cases it is too complicated to determine the stochastic behavior of the statistics and parameters resulting from a DP procedure. In this work, we contribute to this line of investigation by employing a simulation-based matching approach, solved through tools from the fiducial framework, which aims to replicate the data generation pipeline (including the DP step) and retrieve an approximate distribution of the estimates resulting from this pipeline. For this purpose, we focus on the analysis of categorical (nominal) data that is common in national surveys, for which sensitivity is naturally defined, and on additive privacy mechanisms. We prove the validity of the proposed approach in terms of coverage and highlight its good computational and statistical performance for different inferential tasks in simulated and applied data settings.

Modelling and simulating spatial extremes by combining extreme value theory with generative adversarial networks

Modelling dependencies between climate extremes is important for climate risk assessment, for instance when allocating emergency management funds. In statistics, multivariate extreme value theory is often used to model spatial extremes. However, most commonly used approaches require strong assumptions and are either too simplistic or over-parametrised. From a machine learning perspective, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are a powerful tool to model dependencies in high-dimensional spaces. Yet in the standard setting, GANs do not well represent dependencies in the extremes. Here we combine GANs with extreme value theory (evtGAN) to model spatial dependencies in summer maxima of temperature and winter maxima in precipitation over a large part of western Europe. We use data from a stationary 2000-year climate model simulation to validate the approach and explore its sensitivity to small sample sizes. Our results show that evtGAN outperforms classical GANs and standard statistical approaches to model spatial extremes. Already with about 50 years of data, which corresponds to commonly available climate records, we obtain reasonably good performance. In general, dependencies between temperature extremes are better captured than dependencies between precipitation extremes due to the high spatial coherence in temperature fields. Our approach can be applied to other climate variables and can be used to emulate climate models when running very long simulations to determine dependencies in the extremes is deemed infeasible.