Surprisal from Larger Transformer-based Language Models Predicts fMRI Data More Poorly

As Transformers become more widely incorporated into natural language processing tasks, there has been considerable interest in using surprisal from these models as predictors of human sentence processing difficulty. Recent work has observed a positive relationship between Transformer-based models' perplexity and the predictive power of their surprisal estimates on reading times, showing that language models with more parameters and trained on more data are less predictive of human reading times. However, these studies focus on predicting latency-based measures (i.e., self-paced reading times and eye-gaze durations) with surprisal estimates from Transformer-based language models. This trend has not been tested on brain imaging data. This study therefore evaluates the predictive power of surprisal estimates from 17 pre-trained Transformer-based models across three different language families on two functional magnetic resonance imaging datasets. Results show that the positive relationship between model perplexity and model fit still obtains, suggesting that this trend is not specific to latency-based measures and can be generalized to neural measures.

Vectors from Larger Language Models Predict Human Reading Time and fMRI Data More Poorly when Dimensionality Expansion is Controlled

The impressive linguistic abilities of large language models (LLMs) have recommended them as models of human sentence processing, with some conjecturing a positive 'quality-power' relationship (Wilcox et al., 2023), in which language models' (LMs') fit to psychometric data continues to improve as their ability to predict words in context increases. This is important because it suggests that elements of LLM architecture, such as veridical attention to context and a unique objective of predicting upcoming words, reflect the architecture of the human sentence processing faculty, and that any inadequacies in predicting human reading time and brain imaging data may be attributed to insufficient model complexity, which recedes as larger models become available. Recent studies (Oh and Schuler, 2023) have shown this scaling inverts after a point, as LMs become excessively large and accurate, when word prediction probability (as information-theoretic surprisal) is used as a predictor. Other studies propose the use of entire vectors from differently sized LLMs, still showing positive scaling (Schrimpf et al., 2021), casting doubt on the value of surprisal as a predictor, but do not control for the larger number of predictors in vectors from larger LMs. This study evaluates LLM scaling using entire LLM vectors, while controlling for the larger number of predictors in vectors from larger LLMs. Results show that inverse scaling obtains, suggesting that inadequacies in predicting human reading time and brain imaging data may be due to substantial misalignment between LLMs and human sentence processing, which worsens as larger models are used.