Explainable Probabilistic Machine Learning for Predicting Drilling Fluid Loss of Circulation in Marun Oil Field

Lost circulation remains a major and costly challenge in drilling operations, often resulting in wellbore instability, stuck pipe, and extended non-productive time. Accurate prediction of fluid loss is therefore essential for improving drilling safety and efficiency. This study presents a probabilistic machine learning framework based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for predicting drilling fluid loss in complex formations. The GPR model captures nonlinear dependencies among drilling parameters while quantifying predictive uncertainty, offering enhanced reliability for high-risk decision-making. Model hyperparameters are optimized using the Limited memory Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno (LBFGS) algorithm to ensure numerical stability and robust generalization. To improve interpretability, Local Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations (LIME) are employed to elucidate how individual features influence model predictions. The results highlight the potential of explainable probabilistic learning for proactive identification of lost-circulation risks, optimized design of lost circulation materials (LCM), and reduction of operational uncertainties in drilling applications.

Estimation of minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) in impure/pure N2 based enhanced oil recovery process: A comparative study of statistical and machine learning algorithms

Minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) prediction plays an important role in design and operation of nitrogen based enhanced oil recovery processes. In this work, a comparative study of statistical and machine learning methods used for MMP estimation is carried out. Most of the predictive models developed in this study exhibited superior performance over correlation and predictive models reported in literature.